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British financial giant HSBC boosts Türkiye’s 2024 growth forecast to 3.8%

British financial giant HSBC boosts Türkiye's 2024 growth forecast to 3.8% The logo of HSBC is seen on its headquarters in the financial district in Hong Kong, Aug. 4, 2020. (Reuters Photo)
By Newsroom
Jul 9, 2024 2:33 PM

British multinational investment bank and financial services Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) has released a significant report on Türkiye, revising its 2024 growth forecast upward to 3.8% and anticipating the dollar to reach ₺36 by year-end.

HSBC is one of the largest banks globally, operating in over 60 countries and territories across Europe, Asia, North America and the Middle East.

The international community continues to monitor Türkiye’s economic policies closely. Recent upgrades in Türkiye’s credit ratings and its removal from the anti-money laundering grey list mark positive developments for the economy, bolstered by HSBC’s latest insights.

Growth, inflation forecasts

HSBC has updated its growth and inflation forecasts for Türkiye. The bank increased its 2024 growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.8%, while maintaining its 2025 growth forecast at 3.6%.

On inflation, HSBC has revised its projections downward from June. The bank now expects 2024 year-end inflation to be 44.6%, down from 48.0%, and 2025 inflation to be 27.7%, down from 29.0%.

No interest rate hike expected

Our baseline scenario for monetary policy is that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout the year. We anticipate that the real policy rate will be quite favorable by November, but we believe that starting interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter might be premature.


Year-end dollar forecast

HSBC’s year-end dollar/TL forecast is particularly striking. The bank predicts that the exchange rate, currently at ₺32.78, will rise to ₺36 by the end of the year.

Additionally, U.S.-based investment bank Morgan Stanley had forecasted the dollar/TL exchange rate to reach ₺39 by mid-2025.

Bank of America predicts the rate will hit ₺38 by year-end, while economists participating in a Foreks survey expect the highest rate to be ₺38.

Last Updated:  Jul 9, 2024 2:35 PM