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Fitch Ratings has upgraded its outlook on Türkiye's sovereign credit rating to "positive" from "stable" while affirming the country's long-term foreign-currency rating at "BB-," marking another step in the nation's recovery from years of economic turbulence.
The outlook upgrade signals Fitch's increased confidence in Türkiye's economic trajectory, though the rating itself remains in speculative or "junk" territory, three notches below investment grade. The move comes after a series of improvements that saw Türkiye climb from a low of "B" in mid-2022 to its current BB- level.
Türkiye's credit rating has experienced dramatic swings over the past decade. The country held investment-grade status at BBB- from October 2013 through early 2017, representing the peak of its creditworthiness in Fitch's assessment. However, political and economic pressures triggered a prolonged downgrade cycle beginning in January 2017.
The descent accelerated through 2018 and 2019 as currency depreciation and rising inflation eroded economic stability. By July 2022, Fitch had downgraded Türkiye to "B" with a negative outlook, citing high inflation and policy concerns.
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The turnaround began in 2024 with back-to-back upgrades. In March of that year, Fitch raised the rating from B to B+ with a positive outlook, reflecting what it described as policy normalization and reduced inflation risks. Six months later, in September 2024, the agency upgraded Türkiye again to BB- with a stable outlook, pointing to continued improvements in external finances and monetary policy.
Fitch affirmed the BB- rating twice in 2025, in January and July, maintaining the stable outlook while citing sustained reforms and ongoing economic adjustments.
Fitch has assessed Türkiye's creditworthiness since assigning an initial BB- rating in August 1994. The country's credit profile has reflected periods of both crisis and recovery, including a sharp downgrade to B- during the 2001 economic crisis, followed by a gradual climb back to investment grade by 2013.
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