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Gold prices reached new record highs on Monday, supported by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates following a weaker-than-expected labor market report.
Spot gold rose to $3,613.77 per ounce in early trading, surpassing Friday’s all-time peak of $3,600.03. Futures contracts for December delivery stood at $3,652.05 per ounce.
The metal has risen nearly 37% so far in 2025, marking gains in nine of the last 10 sessions.
The latest U.S. payrolls data showed hiring slowed sharply in August, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, its highest level since 2021. Analysts noted that this reinforced expectations of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.
Lower borrowing costs reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, while a weaker U.S. dollar makes the metal more attractive to international investors.
CME’s FedWatch Tool, which tracks the probability of Federal Reserve rate changes based on futures market pricing, shows that markets are assigning a 90.1% chance to a 25-basis-point cut, with a 9.9% probability of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Market focus has also turned to political developments in Washington. Investors await a decision on whether President Donald Trump has legal grounds to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, potentially opening the way for a more dovish appointment.
In addition, Trump’s administration announced on Friday that gold bullion, along with certain metals, would be exempt from country-based tariffs. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested that if Fed independence is undermined and investors shift even a portion of U.S. Treasury holdings into gold, prices could climb toward $5,000 per ounce.
Beyond U.S. developments, central bank purchases continue to underpin demand. The People’s Bank of China raised its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month in August, further diversifying away from U.S. dollar holdings. The trend has added to safe-haven buying and reinforced the metal’s upward momentum.
Silver prices also advanced, gaining 0.8% to $41.87 per ounce, nearing levels last seen in August 2011. Platinum rose 1.6% to $1,410.05 per ounce, while benchmark copper contracts edged higher on both London and U.S. exchanges.
The upward trend in precious and industrial metals comes even as trade data from China—the world’s largest consumer of raw materials—showed slowing export growth and weaker imports in August, underlining fragile domestic demand despite the temporary boost provided by the earlier U.S.-China trade truce.
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