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Global credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings shared its forecasts for Türkiye’s growth, inflation, policy interest rate, and exchange rate for the 2025–28 period, projecting year-end figures for 2025 at 2.7% growth, 33% inflation, a 38% policy rate, and an exchange rate of 43 to the U.S. dollar.
S&P updated its macroeconomic forecasts for several countries on Friday, citing heightened unpredictability surrounding the U.S. administration’s policy decisions and their potential impact on global economies, supply chains, and credit conditions.
For Türkiye, S&P projected that the economy will grow by 2.7% in 2025, followed by 2.9% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027, and 3.2% in 2028. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revised its 2025 growth forecast for Türkiye slightly upward to 2.7%.
The agency also expects inflation to decline gradually over the same period, forecasting annual consumer price increases of 33% in 2025, 18.3% in 2026, 14.2% in 2027, and 12.7% in 2028. S&P’s forecast for Türkiye’s year-end policy interest rate stands at 38% in 2025, followed by significant easing to 17.5% in 2026 and a further decline to 12.5% in both 2027 and 2028.
According to its latest Inflation Report, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) projects year-end inflation to decline to 24% in 2025, fall to 12% in 2026, ease to 8% in 2027, and stabilize around 5% over the medium term.
Türkiye’s inflation continued its downward trend for the 10th consecutive month in March, easing to 38.1%. Meanwhile, the CBRT surprised markets by raising its policy interest rate by 350 basis points to 46%, reversing course after three consecutive rate cuts from its peak of 50%. In its statement, the CBRT cited strong and persistent domestic demand, ongoing volatility in financial markets, and global uncertainty linked to increasing leverage as key factors behind the unexpected decision. The central bank emphasized that additional tightening was deemed necessary to reinforce the disinflation process and restore price stability.
Unemployment is anticipated to decrease modestly, with rates projected at 10.2% in 2025, 10.0% in 2026, 9.8% in 2027, and 9.7% in 2028. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in March, reaching its lowest level in two decades.
In terms of exchange rates, the U.S. dollar is expected to trade at 43 by the end of 2025, rising to 48 in 2026, 52 in 2027, and 55 in 2028. As of 4:20 p.m. local time on Friday, the USD/TRY exchange stood at 38.5481.
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