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A shift in global climate patterns is underway as La Nina strengthens in the Pacific Ocean.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) confirm that La Nina began in June and will continue until January 2026.
Experts warn that this development will change atmospheric circulation worldwide and affect Türkiye and Europe indirectly but strongly.
La Nina describes cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
It usually brings the opposite effects of El Nino, which warms the Pacific and triggers either heavy rain or drought across different regions. Both events affect global weather systems and influence farming, fisheries, and water supplies.
Meteorology engineer Adil Tek explained the recent shift. “From the start of 2024 until April we saw El Nino conditions. Neutral conditions lasted until the end of May. Since June, La Nina has taken over,” he said.
Tek added that the current phase remains weak to moderate but will likely continue for months.
Tek said September will feel warmer than usual with “more hot days than cold ones.”
October and November will stay close to seasonal averages. Winter temperatures will reach about one degree above the norm. “That does not mean the season will stay warm,” Tek noted. “Several cold waves may arrive in January and bring snow.”
Drought remains the major concern. Tek said September will stay dry, with October also below seasonal averages. “We expect more rain in December and January. The relief from drought could start in December,” he explained.
Experts in Türkiye warn of polar vortex changes and unpredictable weather
Dr. Guven Ozdemir of Istanbul Aydin University said models show La Nina will change in strength through the season. “It may increase at some points and weaken later. Conditions will not stay stable,” he explained.
He pointed to the polar vortex as another factor. “We expect possible disruption of the vortex this year. If it breaks down, winters turn harsher. If it holds, conditions remain normal. At this stage it is still a possibility,” he said.
Ozdemir said systems moving from the Balkans could bring rain and storms in late October and November. “We can see strong showers and thunder at times, but the spread will stay uneven. The drought risk remains high,” he warned.
Both experts agree that average temperatures will stay above normal this autumn and winter. They also said irregular rain and sudden cold spells could still bring snow.
In the short term, Tek forecast a warm spell this weekend. “Temperatures will peak on Sunday, with Istanbul reaching around 32 degrees Celsius,” he said. He also noted that the Marmara region will stay dry until mid-September, while eastern and southeastern parts of Türkiye may see scattered rain.
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