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Türkiye is finally preparing to take its first major step toward 5G. The government announced that the long-awaited frequency tender will be held in October, with the first commercial services expected in 2026. According to Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu, the state has been in close consultation with the country’s three largest telecom operators while studying rollout models, particularly from Europe.
This will mark one of the most significant telecom investments in Türkiye in years. But beneath the surface, the path to 5G is riddled with economic, political, and industrial dilemmas. The country cannot go all-in with China for cost reasons. Doing so would pose a threat to its own security, especially as the U.S., a NATO ally, has made its position clear since president Trump’s first term. If Türkiye relies entirely on Western advanced technologies, there would be no resources left for domestic production. A situation where domestic production dominates is not yet possible. Now is the time to mix these elements wisely.
ULAK, Türkiye’s state-backed telecom firm known for building the country’s first indigenous 4.5G base station, insists its 5G base stations are ready. The company proved its capabilities during the 4.5G rollout, but insiders say the economics of 5G are proving far more difficult.
The cost of producing 5G base stations is much higher than previous generations. Only companies with scale and access to wide markets can compete effectively. ULAK executives worry that local firms may be priced out of the race. Last March, ULAK was in talks with Turkcell and Turk Telekom during the Barcelona telecom conference. The results of these negotiations remain unclear.
On the core network side, however, ULAK and domestic firm i2i remain more confident, hoping to carve out a role despite the overwhelming dominance of global giants such as Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZTE. Yet all three Turkish mobile operators have been engaged in parallel negotiations with both local and foreign vendors for years, and many observers believe that procurement choices have already been informally set.
The competitive pressure on local producers is evident. Turkcell has reportedly begun talks to equip some 4,000 sites with 5G base stations, but ULAK has struggled to secure a position in these plans.
Meanwhile, foreign companies are entering the market with striking offers. ZTE, the Chinese telecom company, reportedly bid in one operator’s tender with a five-year package, including maintenance, repairs, and servicing, for zero Turkish lira.
Industry insiders question whether Türkiye has any realistic tools to protect local companies from such loss-leading offers. For now, the answer appears to be no. The dilemma for Turkish policymakers is clear. They want to be cost-effective while protecting domestic producers and not upsetting allies such as the U.S.
In addition, investments must be used effectively for technologies that will change in five years' time, as resources are limited.
The debate over 5G in Türkiye is inseparable from the country’s political discourse around “domestic and national” technology. In 2017–18, the government allocated substantial R&D funding for 5G research.
Defense-linked firms, including ASELSAN and HAVELSAN, entered the sector. HAVELSAN, despite being a co-owner of ULAK, launched its own 5G division, employing 60 engineers. For years, the two companies competed for funding and projects, instead of managing the resources more efficiently. Eventually, HAVELSAN closed its 5G program altogether. The state-backed defense firms overshadow and crowd out private initiatives, leaving the country’s private telecom sector weaker.
Despite years of promises, the domestic content share in 4.5G remains unclear. Officially, the tender required that 45% of 4.5G equipment be locally sourced. In practice, industry insiders insist this figure was never achieved. Yet, when pressed, senior executives at Türkiye’s mobile operators continue to give stock responses: “We are at the required levels.”
With 5G now moving forward, the lack of clarity over past targets raises doubts. Türkiye was told 5G would be rolled out with a far higher degree of local content than 4.5G. Instead, the conversation has shifted away from local production entirely. Notably, Minister Uraloglu, despite making repeated statements about 5G, has rarely mentioned local contribution, a contrast with the rhetoric that surrounded 4.5G.
Global firms continue to strengthen their position in Türkiye. In 2022, Turk Telekom signed a memorandum of understanding with Huawei. The Ministry of Transport publicly emphasized Huawei’s “important contributions” to Türkiye’s telecom infrastructure.
That same year, Turkcell and Ericsson staged Türkiye’s first 5G autonomous robot demonstration, showcasing the low-latency and real-time data transfer potential of the technology. These partnerships underscored both the appeal of advanced international expertise and the continued gap between domestic ambitions and global market realities.
Domestic suppliers like ULAK and i2i remain hopeful, particularly in areas like the core network. Yet their capacity to match the scale, pricing, and established credibility of international giants remains limited. Local firms argue they are not being given meaningful opportunities in tenders and are disadvantaged by a lack of state-backed scale economies.
No discussion of 5G in Türkiye can ignore geopolitics. The United States has long pressed allies to ban Huawei and ZTE from their networks, labeling them national security threats. During Donald Trump’s first presidency, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Ankara that continued use of Huawei equipment could jeopardize US-Türkiye military cooperation.
Türkiye was not alone in facing this pressure. The UK initially resisted Washington’s demands, only to reverse course later. Across Europe, US lobbying led to restrictions and phase-outs of Huawei gear in national networks.
Today, with Trump back in the White House, the stakes are even higher. Much of Türkiye’s existing telecom infrastructure, built over the last decade, relies on Huawei. Estimates suggest the value of Huawei-linked investments in Türkiye totals around $10–12 billion, with a similar amount required for upcoming 5G upgrades.
In the US, the Federal Communications Commission barred funding to carriers using Huawei or ZTE, and Congress allocated $1.9 billion to help smaller operators remove existing Chinese equipment.
For Türkiye, the implication is clear: if operators expand their Huawei investments in 5G, Washington may treat it as a red line. That could translate into technology export restrictions, limits on defense cooperation, or even financial measures, which are risks Türkiye’s fragile economy can ill afford.
As Türkiye edges closer to the October tender, the telecom sector is bracing for decisions that will shape the country’s digital future. For now, foreign suppliers appear ready, local firms are preparing, and operators are keeping their cards close to their chest. The balance between cost-efficiency, domestic industry, and geopolitical alignment remains unsettled.
The coming months will reveal whether Türkiye can chart a sustainable 5G strategy, one that reconciles local ambitions with the realities of global technology and the weight of international politics.
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