Newsletters
The Assembly of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)'s Oct. 14, 2025, decision, to adopt, by a majority vote, a resolution proposal entitled “A Two-State Solution to the Cyprus Problem,” marks the beginning of a new era in the discussions on the political status of the island.
Following the failure of negotiation processes based on a federation model for over half a century, this decision by the TRNC's highest legislative body institutionalizes the Turkish Cypriot side's determination to achieve a solution based on sovereign equality.
Influenced by the harmonious stance between Ankara and Nicosia and Türkiye's repeated calls for recognition at the United Nations (U.N.) General Assembly, this decision constitutes a strategic declaration directly affecting the geopolitical balance in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The decision adopted by the assembly of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is based on the determination that the federation model, which has been pursued for many years and has consistently failed to yield results, is a “depleted formula”.
The negotiation processes, which began in 1968 and gained momentum again with the 2004 Annan Plan, have repeatedly reached an impasse due to the Greek Cypriot side's refusal to recognize the equal political status of the Turkish Cypriot people.
Although federation-based solution initiatives were based on the idea of bringing the two communities on the island together under a common political structure, the Greek Cypriot insistence on “single sovereignty, single international identity and single citizenship” rendered this model inoperable.
Despite the Turkish Cypriot side voting “yes” in the 2004 Annan Plan referendum, the European Union's (EU) failure to fulfill its commitments to lift the isolation of Turkish Cypriots has deeply undermined confidence in the sincerity of the international community.
Regardless of the Turkish side's will to find a solution, the Greek Cypriot side was rewarded with full EU membership, undermining the foundations of trust that could have been established based on a federation.
The Greek Cypriot side's refusal to accept ‘political equality’ at the 2017 Crans Montana Conference caused the negotiations to collapse completely, officially confirming that the search for a federal solution had become unsustainable.
Prime Minister Unal Ustel’s statement in his parliamentary speech that “from 1974 to 2020, federation was discussed, but the Greek Cypriot side never accepted sovereign equality” summarizes the disappointments experienced during this historical process.
This point, emphasized by Ustel, demonstrates that federation has ceased to be merely a “method of negotiation” and has become a “status quo tool” that keeps the Turkish Cypriot people in a state of constant uncertainty.
In this context, the decision taken by the assembly is not merely a reaction to past failed negotiations; it represents a strategic shift in the Turkish Cypriot side's pursuit of international status.
At a time when the federation has become a spent model consigned to history, the Turkish Cypriot side has declared that a solution is possible only based on the sovereign equality of two separate peoples, living side by side as two independent states.
The new paradigm institutionalizes a discourse of sovereignty based on the Turkish Cypriot people's right to self-determination and the process of statehood.
In this respect, the decision represents a historic turning point, marking a shift from the concept of “equal partnership” to that of “sovereign equality” in the Cyprus issue.
The principle of “sovereign equality” at the heart of the decision taken by the Assembly of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus means that the right of the Turkish Cypriot people to determine their own future has found concrete expression at both the national and international levels.
This principle represents an approach that aims to recognize the legitimate presence of the Turkish Cypriot people on the island, not only at the level of autonomy or political equality, but based on state sovereignty.
In other words, sovereign equality has formed the institutional basis for the Turkish Cypriot side's desire to transition from “founding partner” status to “independent state” status.
The decision proposal adopted by the Assembly of the Republic prioritizes increasing the visibility of the TRNC in the international arena, eliminating unjust political, economic and social isolation, and obtaining full membership in the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) under its constitutional name as key foreign policy objectives.
These objectives go beyond the pursuit of diplomatic recognition and aim to position the Turkish Cypriot people as a legitimate actor in the international system.
The statement made by Cevdet Yilmaz, Vice President of the Republic of Türkiye, regarding the decision is a concrete demonstration of the strategic coordination between Ankara and Nicosia.
Yilmaz's words, “A fair, sustainable and lasting solution on the island is only possible based on two sovereign, equal states,” confirm Türkiye's full support for the new political vision built by the TRNC based on sovereign equality.
This statement demonstrates that the “two-state solution” paradigm, which Ankara has openly advocated on international platforms since 2020, has been institutionalized at the level of constitutional institutions in the TRNC.
This strategic alignment can be seen as a reflection of Türkiye's “proactive diplomacy” approach in foreign policy. Through President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's call for the recognition of the TRNC, voiced at the U.N. General Assembly for four consecutive years, Türkiye has transformed the Cyprus issue from merely a negotiation dossier into a permanent item on the international agenda.
In this process, Ankara supports the diplomatic promotion of the TRNC while spearheading the strengthening of political, economic, and cultural ties with the Turkish world.
Another dimension of the sovereign equality-based approach is the process of establishing a “shared strategic identity” between Türkiye and the TRNC. Joint efforts in the Eastern Mediterranean on energy security, maritime jurisdiction areas, and regional stability reinforce the practical foundations of the two-state solution vision.
In this context, the TRNC's full integration with Türkiye, not only in the political sphere but also in the economic, defense, and energy sectors, is shaping the strategic fabric of the new era.
The decision on a “two-state solution” adopted by the Assembly of the Republic of Turkish Cyprus is not merely an expression of an internal political stance; it is a strategic roadmap aimed at accelerating the process of international recognition.
This decision has declared the legitimate claim of sovereignty of the Turkish Cypriot people to the international community in institutional language and has clearly demonstrated that the status quo on the island is no longer sustainable.
References in the assembly's decision to the examples of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Palestine draw attention to the fact that the recognition of states can occur independently of a U.N. Security Council resolution, thereby strengthening the argument that the TRNC possesses the status of a “recognizable state” under international law.
This perspective aims to lay the groundwork for the transition from “de facto” existence to “de jure” status. Indeed, since 1983, the TRNC has established its own institutions, legislative, executive and judicial powers, and has established a state order that functions through democratic elections. This situation meets the criteria for “statehood” set out in the Montevideo Convention (a permanent population, defined territory, effective government, and the capacity to establish relations with other states).
Therefore, the issue of recognition is essentially a matter of political will and does not contain any prohibitive elements from the perspective of international law.
President Ersin Tatar's characterization of the assembly's decision as “the declaration that the federation chapter is closed for good” reflects a paradigm shift in the diplomatic vision of the Turkish Cypriot side.
Recalling the Cyprus motion unanimously adopted by the Türkiye Grand National Assembly in 2024, Tatar emphasized full strategic alignment between Ankara and Nicosia, stating, “The Turkish Cypriot people will continue to build their future on the path toward a two-state solution based on sovereign equality, shoulder to shoulder with their motherland, Türkiye.”
In this context, the foreign policy direction that the TRNC will pursue in the coming period will be shaped by the establishment of regional legitimacy and institutional integration with the Turkish world.
The goal of transitioning from observer status to “full membership” in the OTS will not only be a symbolic achievement but also a strategic leap forward that will increase the TRNC's international visibility.
The multilateral cooperation platform established by the OTS in the economic, cultural and diplomatic spheres provides a basis that could facilitate the TRNC's recognition within the regional system.
In particular, the increased visibility of the TRNC in the Turkic world, with the support of countries such as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, creates a dynamic that could lend “bottom-up legitimacy” to the recognition process.
However, it is expected that the TRNC's international recognition strategy will not be limited to the Turkish world alone; it is also expected to be supported by diplomatic initiatives with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and friendly countries in Africa.
Türkiye's recent opening toward Africa and its multilateral foreign policy vision create new opportunities to increase the TRNC's visibility. The TRNC is expected to become a more visible, legitimate and effective actor in the coming period.
About the author: Zeynep Gizem Ozpinar is a board member and foreign policy specialist at the Turkish Foreign Policy Research Center (TUDPAM).
4 min read
