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“We're not going to force anything on our Israeli friends when it comes to foreign troops on their soil, but we do think that there's a constructive role for the Turks to play, and frankly, they've already played a very constructive role. We're very grateful for that.” This statement by the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance is quite illustrative of the discrepancy between the U.S. and Israel when it comes to the potential role of Türkiye in Gaza.
When U.S. President Donald Trump proposed his plan to eight Muslim nations, Türkiye’s president sat beside him at the head of the table. Later, Trump strongarmed Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into agreeing to the plan, but the key question at that time was whether Hamas would agree as well. And here, it was the Turkish role that ultimately convinced Hamas to accept the ceasefire. In the end, Türkiye became a co-signer of the Trump Declaration.
For the Trump administration, the Gaza conflict must end so that the U.S. vision of the Abraham Accords and regional peace can be fulfilled. To prevent a return to violence, the U.S. believes two things are key: Restraining Israel and disarming Hamas. For both goals, Türkiye may be the key.
Currently, only Israel and Türkiye possess the power in the Middle East to project power beyond their borders. With the recent losses of Iran and its proxies, and the inability of Egypt to project power beyond its borders due to the policies of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Türkiye has emerged as a rising power in the region. Furthermore, the new situation in Syria brings Türkiye and Israel at odds with each other and has enforced a deconfliction mechanism.
Although Trump has a strong relationship with the Turkish president, make no mistake—the U.S. president is inherently pro-Israel. Trump recognizes that the region seeks a balance between Israel and Türkiye, its two leading powers. Thus, Türkiye has effectively become the de facto counterweight to Israel. Trump is simply acknowledging this reality rather than encouraging Türkiye to play that role.
When it comes to disarming Hamas, Türkiye’s military participation in an international stabilization force in Gaza could be pivotal. Just as Ankara helped persuade Hamas to agree to the cease-fire, the presence of Turkish troops might provide the ultimate assurance Hamas needs to fully accept Trump’s terms. Also, hardliners within Hamas would lose ground in their opposition to disarmament, while public pressure from Palestinians would intensify. The depth of trust toward Türkiye should not be underestimated.
However, Israel’s pressure on the U.S. to block the deployment of Turkish troops is likely to complicate the situation. Vance’s remarks addressed the matter in a constructive tone. Some political circles in Israel may view the presence of Turkish peacekeepers in Gaza as a symbolic Israeli defeat. Nevertheless, the U.S. remains cautiously optimistic.
That said, I still believe it’s still too early to draw any conclusions. We’ll have to wait and see how things evolve and what Trump decides tomorrow. After all, at the end of the day, Trump is Trump.
3 min read
