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Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report

Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report
May 16, 2025 12:19 PM GMT+03:00

The PKK terrorist group will abandon its so-called headquarters in the Qandil Mountains as part of a comprehensive disarmament and dissolution process that marks the third phase of Türkiye's five-phase plan to eliminate terrorism, according to reports by prominent Turkish journalists Abdulkadir Selvi and Hande Firat of Hurriyet newspaper.

PKK to abandon mountain strongholds under 5-phase peace initiative

According to information gathered from multiple sources, the Qandil Mountains are a rugged area located near the Iran-Iraq border that has served as the headquarters and sanctuary for the PKK. The region features difficult terrain with peaks reaching over 3,000 meters, which has made it an ideal stronghold for the organization.

The PKK's decision to evacuate its mountain strongholds is part of a broader disarmament process that will see the group leave not only Qandil but also its other camps located in Zap, Metina, and Gara regions, according to Selvi's article published in Hurriyet. This represents a significant development in the decades-long conflict between the PKK and the Turkish state.

The five-phase plan, as detailed by Firat, began with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's call in Ahlat to strengthen the "internal front," followed by Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli's historic call on Oct. 22, 2024, suggesting that the isolation of PKK ringleader Abdullah Ocalan be lifted.

The second phase focused on preparing Ocalan's call for disarmament, with Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) conducting the groundwork that culminated in the PKK's dissolution congress on May 12, 2025.

Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report
Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report

Cooperation with Iraqi government planned for camp transition

According to Selvi's report, the evacuation process will be conducted in cooperation with the Iraqi government. After the PKK withdraws from its camps, Türkiye's MIT will inspect the areas before transferring control to Iraqi authorities.

The process is expected to take several months, with estimates ranging from two to four months or potentially longer, depending on conditions. This timeline is considerably shorter than disarmament processes in other conflicts, such as the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which took approximately four years to disarm, according to Selvi's report.

The current third phase involves the actual disarmament process across multiple countries. Separate mechanisms are being established for PKK fighters in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Türkiye, with each region requiring different approaches due to varying geographical and political conditions.

Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report
Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report

PKK leadership to relocate as part of agreement

The report indicates that senior PKK ringleaders, including Cemil Bayik, Murat Karayilan, and Bese Hozat, will leave their mountain bases as part of the agreement. According to Selvi, the approximately 30-50 high-ranking PKK ringleaders have several options for relocation, including remaining in Iraq or moving to European countries.

Most are expected to stay in Iraq, with Sulaymaniyah, controlled by the Talabani family, being mentioned as a likely destination, though Erbil remains another possibility within Iraq.

Phases 4 and 5 to focus on legal reforms and social integration

The fourth phase will involve legal reforms and democratization efforts led by the Turkish Parliament, with political parties working together on legislation they agree supports democratization.

The fifth and final phase will address the sociological and psychological aspects of integration, focusing on reintegrating former militants into society while ensuring respect for the families of fallen soldiers and avoiding any actions that might offend them.

Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report
Türkiye outlines 5-phase counterterrorism strategy as PKK set to leave Qandil: Report

Implications for regional security and peace process

This development marks a potentially historic shift in the decadeslong conflict that has claimed numerous lives since the PKK began its armed struggle in 1984. According to Selvi's report, the economic cost of the conflict to Türkiye is estimated between 600 billion and 1.8 trillion dollars.

The disarmament process is being coordinated by Turkish intelligence services without the involvement of international organizations like the United Nations. Instead, MIT is working directly with authorities in each affected country.

Ocalan, the imprisoned ringleader of the PKK, will remain in the Imrali island prison, according to the report, though his detention conditions may see some improvements to facilitate his role in the ongoing peace process. President Erdogan has stated that Ocalan has not requested to be released from prison.

May 16, 2025 12:19 PM GMT+03:00
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