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Turkish security sources stated on Monday that the ship attacks in Türkiye's search and rescue zone in the Black Sea were planned operations designed to send a message to Russia about blocking shadow fleet oil transport operations.
"Front-line warfare has transformed into technological warfare. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran highlighted developments in missile technology. Now, hypersonic missiles are gradually being deployed. Current air defense systems cannot stop these missiles. This is why every country is concentrating on this area," Turkish security sources speaking to Akif Bulbul from Turkish media outlet Türkiye daily stated.
The ongoing wars between Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Gaza, and Israel and Iran have driven countries to develop new technologies and tactics in defense. As operations, campaigns, and front-line warfare transform into technological warfare, the use of hypersonic missiles complicates countries' air defense capabilities.
Türkiye, with its increasing geopolitical and geostrategic importance, monitors movements in its region in real time and takes necessary precautions.
Security sources provided a detailed analysis of the Black Sea ship attacks, explaining the strategic reasoning behind the timing and targeting.
"Regarding the ships, we must first understand why these attacks occurred. Russia is under an embargo to prevent it from selling oil abroad. The Russians break the embargo by transporting their oil using what is called a 'shadow fleet'—ships belonging to other countries and flying different flags—to buyer countries.
They have been doing this for a long time. Nearly 60% of the ships that do the transporting are owned by Greek shipowners. But these ships carry flags from different countries. The two ships that were hit were attacked at one-and-a-half-hour intervals. This was a planned attack," Turkish security sources said.
"The question that needs to be asked is: Why now? U.S. President Donald Trump has put forward a peace plan. Even if it favors him, the Russians are not very satisfied with it; they are resisting, and they want more. President Trump is pressuring Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to accept the peace plan, but the actual objection is coming from Russia," security sources added.
"Russia realized during the war that its system is resilient; it does not appear inclined toward peace. With these attacks, a message was sent to Russia: 'Look, if we want, we can strike the products you transport with your shadow fleet and block this system.' Russia received this message and bombed Odesa the same day," Turkish sources noted.
Security sources explained the significance of the attacks occurring just outside Turkish territorial waters, in the search-and-rescue region (SRR).
"The reason these ships were attacked right outside our territorial waters, in our search and rescue zone, stems from the fact that they know we will go and rescue them. Also, for the action to create the necessary impact, it needed to be visible."
"It is outside our territorial waters, but we do not have the right to tell Ukraine, 'Why are you conducting attacks here?' Because these waters are legally international waters. However, we have the right to say, 'You cannot endanger freedom of navigation' or 'Do not bring the war this close to us.' Another risk is that since insurance costs for ships have increased, they prefer not to use this route again," Turkish security sources said.
Security sources, who spoke to Türkiye daily, also analyzed the broader geopolitical context driving recent conflicts and strategic military operations, saying: "Looking at the general picture, the world is moving from unipolarity back toward multipolarity. But because the U.S. does not want multipolarity, it plans accordingly. Its main rival is China."
"China is advancing so rapidly that if measures are not taken, if it is not stopped within a few years, it will be impossible to catch up with it anymore. This is why it is forced to confront China," security sources added.
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Security sources emphasized Türkiye's increasing strategic importance and its monitoring of regional developments, stating: "We monitor daily what is happening around us, in our region, what has been done, and what events have occurred, and we also analyze them. Among the tools used for the first time in this war, FPV drones were the most effective and noteworthy."
"In both the Ukraine-Russia war and the Gaza-Israel war and in other international events, Türkiye stands out as a mediator. The reason for this is that Türkiye's geopolitical and geostrategic importance increases with each passing day," Turkish security sources noted.
The security sources lastly emphasized the transition from conventional warfare to technology-based conflict, with particular focus on emerging drone and missile technologies that are reshaping military capabilities across the region and globally.
"In the current operational environment, countries are forced to develop new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats. The effectiveness of FPV drones in recent conflicts has demonstrated the critical importance of aerial dominance in modern warfare," the sources concluded.
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