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U.S. intelligence agencies continue to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned his goal of seizing all of Ukraine and reclaiming former Soviet territories in Europe, according to six sources familiar with classified reports, even as Trump administration negotiators pursue a peace deal that would leave Moscow controlling far less Ukrainian land.
The intelligence findings, including assessments as recent as late September, present a sharp divergence from the optimistic messaging coming from President Donald Trump and his peace envoys, who have publicly stated that Putin seeks to end the nearly three-year conflict. The reports also challenge Putin's own denials that he poses a threat to European nations beyond Ukraine.
U.S. intelligence assessments have remained consistent since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, largely aligning with European intelligence services and political leaders who believe Putin covets not only all of Ukraine but also territories of former Soviet bloc states, including current NATO members.
"The intelligence has always been that Putin wants more," Rep. Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in an interview. "The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they're first."
Trump's lead negotiators, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate developer Steve Witkoff, have spent weeks working on a 20-point peace framework with Ukrainian, Russian and European officials. The envoys met with Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday and were scheduled to hold discussions with Russian representatives over the weekend, according to a White House official.
Despite claims of progress, significant disagreements remain over territorial concessions. Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including most of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that form the industrial Donbas region, portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces, and the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Putin has claimed permanent Russian sovereignty over Crimea and all four provinces. Trump is reportedly pressuring Kyiv to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the small section of Donetsk they still hold as part of a proposed settlement, a demand that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians reject, according to two sources familiar with the negotiations.
U.S., Ukrainian and European negotiators reached broad consensus during Monday talks in Berlin on what four European diplomats and two sources described as robust American-backed security guarantees designed to deter future Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The proposed framework, which would take effect after a peace agreement, calls for deploying a predominantly European security force in neighboring countries and in Ukrainian territory away from front-line areas to help repel any renewed Russian attack. The U.S. would provide intelligence and other support under a package requiring Senate ratification, with plans also including American-backed air patrols over Ukraine, according to two sources.
The guarantees would cap Ukraine's military at 800,000 personnel, though several diplomats said Russia is seeking a lower limit that American negotiators are willing to consider. One source and a diplomat indicated the security provisions depend on Zelenskyy agreeing to cede territory to Russia, though other diplomats disputed this characterization and said alternatives remain under examination.
Zelenskyy expressed skepticism about the proposals on Thursday, questioning their effectiveness. "There's a question I still can't get an answer to: What will these security guarantees actually do?" he said.
The viability of any security arrangement remains deeply uncertain, as Putin has repeatedly rejected the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.
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Speaking at his annual news conference Friday, Putin indicated readiness to discuss peace but offered no concessions, insisting his terms must be met as Russian forces have seized 6,000 square kilometers this year.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard wrote on social media platform X on Saturday that intelligence officers have briefed lawmakers that Russia seeks to avoid a larger European war and that its military performance in Ukraine demonstrates it currently lacks capacity to overrun all of Ukraine or the continent.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged uncertainty about Putin's ultimate intentions during a Friday press conference. "I don't know if Putin wants to do a deal or Putin wants to take the whole country. These are things that he has said openly," Rubio said. "We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began. They haven't achieved those objectives."
The White House defended the administration's diplomatic efforts without directly addressing the intelligence assessments. An official said Trump's team "has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war" and that a peace deal "is closer than ever before."
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, CIA and Russian embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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