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The global chocolate industry is on alert as Türkiye—supplier of nearly 70% of the world’s hazelnuts—faces one of its most disrupted seasons in recent memory, with local industry representatives anticipating a record price hike in the upcoming season.
A destructive spring frost in April has severely reduced yields, with industry estimates suggesting this year’s harvest could fall below 400,000 tons, down sharply from typical levels of 700,000 to 800,000 tons.
The supply shock has pushed hazelnut prices in Türkiye's free market to around ₺180 ($4.44) per kilogram, with forward prices already exceeding ₺200. Sector analysts say prices could rise to ₺300 per kilogram, with some exporters predicting international prices could hit $10 per kilogram, adjusted for inflation, the highest since the 2014 spike.
The price surge is being closely watched by international confectionery brands, particularly those heavily reliant on hazelnuts. Italy’s Ferrero, the maker of Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, is among the most exposed. The company sources roughly a quarter of Türkiye’s annual hazelnut output and uses the nut as a key ingredient across product lines.
With hazelnuts making up around 13% of Nutella’s formula and millions of jars sold annually, even minor price shifts can have global cost implications. Ferrero and other buyers now face tighter margins as supply narrows and speculative activity intensifies in Türkiye’s domestic market.
Despite the rising tension, Türkiye’s state-run Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has not yet announced its official hazelnut purchase price—an annual benchmark that guides both domestic and export market behavior.
Industry participants warn that this delay is amplifying price volatility. “Everyone is waiting on TMO,” Sebahattin Arslanturk, deputy chair of the Hazelnut and Products Committee at the Eastern Black Sea Exporters Association, told business-focused ekonomim.com. “If the board sets a base price around 180 TRY, it will likely be ignored. This season is different—there’s simply not enough supply.”
According to Arslanturk, this year’s dynamics are rewriting the rules of the market. "If prices start at ₺200 per kg, a climb to ₺300 is realistic,” he said, adding that in dollar terms, a $10 per kilogram price is no longer out of the question. In 2014, hazelnut prices briefly touched $8 per kilogram during another shortfall, generating $2.8 billion in export revenue despite reduced volumes.
Farmers across Türkiye’s Black Sea region report sharp increases in operating costs, including labor, fertilizer, and pest control. In Ordu province, producer Yuksel Gol said expenses have nearly doubled. “This is a special year. The crop is scarce, and costs are high. That should be reflected in the price,” he said.
Some growers have already begun harvesting early, hoping to secure favorable prices. But agricultural advisors caution that premature picking could reduce yield quality further, worsening the already tight supply situation.
Türkiye exported nearly 143,000 tons of hazelnuts in the first half of 2025, generating almost $1.2 billion. But analysts warn that unless pricing and supply stabilize, the second half of the year could bring reduced export volumes—and more pressure on international buyers.
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