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The U.S. government has scrapped the release of October’s consumer inflation data, citing a record-breaking federal shutdown that stalled survey collection—leaving the Federal Reserve to steer policy without one of its key instruments.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said it was unable to complete the necessary data gathering during the 43-day lapse in government funding, forcing the cancellation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report originally scheduled for November 13.
The shutdown also halted the collection of labor market statistics, including unemployment figures, prompting the BLS to call off the October jobs report—another critical input for monetary policy deliberations.
These cancellations come just weeks before the Federal Reserve’s scheduled monetary policy meeting on Dec. 9–10. Normally, the central bank relies on both inflation and employment figures to assess whether further interest rate adjustments are needed.
The absence of these reports means the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lack official October readings on either inflation or labor market strength when it deliberates its next move.
The government shutdown, which stretched from early October to mid-November, was the longest in U.S. history and delayed the publication of multiple economic indicators, including data on retail sales and trade.
However, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which gauges rate change probabilities based on 30-day Fed Funds futures, markets currently assign a 71% chance to a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, which would lower the benchmark range to 3.5%–3.75% and mark a third consecutive reduction this year.
Some non-survey-based indexes for October will be released along with November data. However, the BLS also announced that even the November CPI figures will be delayed, with the new release date moved to December 18 from the previously scheduled Dec. 10.
A weakening job market might have prompted additional rate cuts to support growth, but ongoing inflation pressures, exacerbated by tariffs imposed earlier in the year under President Donald Trump, have led some Fed officials to consider holding rates steady for longer.
The latest available figures before the shutdown showed that headline inflation rose to 3% in September, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while newly released employment data indicated 119,000 jobs were added during the same month.
The combined impact of the data blackout and tariff-induced price pressures leaves the Federal Reserve navigating blind spots in an already uncertain economic environment.
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