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While rumors of Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek's resignation have created a buzz in Türkiye's political and economic circles, British economist Timothy Ash projected what might happen if these rumors were true – painting a grim picture for Türkiye’s economy.
Rumors gained traction after reports suggested that Simsek had resigned nearly two weeks ago and was persuaded to stay by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz.
Despite our denial, those who continue to spread these rumors cannot be acting in good faith. We will not allow false stories to impact our economy or markets. Please do not be misled.
Mehmet Simsek
In the wake of these rumors, British economist Timothy Ash, known for his insightful analyses of Türkiye's economy, penned a scenario detailing the potential fallout if Simsek were to leave his post.
Ash's analysis centers on the critical role Simsek plays in maintaining Türkiye's economic stability, particularly through his adherence to orthodox economic policies.
Ash warns that if Simsek resigns or is dismissed, the following could happen:
Ash also highlights the importance of continued adherence to orthodox economic policies for attracting Gulf investment. He notes that without a stable macroeconomic environment, the much-anticipated Gulf funds might not materialize, further straining Türkiye's economic outlook.
Timothy Ash is a Senior Sovereign Strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management in London.
With over 20 years of experience covering Türkiye as a professional economist, he is also an Associate Fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program and a Trustee at Crown Agents International Development.
Ash has held senior roles in emerging markets research at various international banks, including Bear Stearns, RBS, and Nomura plc. He has a Master's in Agricultural Economics from Manchester University and has worked extensively across Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.
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