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As Hollywood heads toward the Thanksgiving break, this year's Oscar race is gathering pace with several major contenders redefining the landscape. Variety’s latest Awards Circuit outlook shows Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another still leading the field, while Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein posts one of the week’s biggest surges.
The charts indicate that Anderson’s film is projected to earn 14 nominations, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners follows closely with 13, and del Toro’s reimagining of Frankenstein rises to 12. Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet remains stable with 11, and Wicked: For Good strengthens its position with nine projected nods.
Variety’s commentary notes that del Toro’s return to directing and adapted screenplay prediction lists for the first time in months reflects “a meaningful shift in momentum,” with increasing industry buzz aligning with the film’s upward movement.
The new projections suggest that "Frankenstein" is gaining traction beyond the top races. Its reappearance in key directing and writing categories bolsters its overall narrative, while improvements in production design, makeup, cinematography, and original score indicate broader support across guild-influenced branches.
Jacob Elordi’s performance as the Creature also keeps him among the top five projected supporting actor contenders.
In performance categories, Hailee Steinfeld moves into the supporting actress lineup for the first time this season thanks to her turn in Coogler’s Sinners. The projection places her alongside Ariana Grande, Regina Hall, Elle Fanning, and Teyana Taylor. Variety notes that Steinfeld could be heading toward her second Oscar nomination after True Grit in 2010.
Jessie Buckley maintains her lead in the best actress predictions for Hamnet, while Ethan Hawke stays out front in the best actor category for Blue Moon.
Beyond the top-line categories, the predictions also highlight several films that could disrupt the race should passion votes build. The animated feature field remains competitive, with Ne Zha 2 staying strong and Little Amelie, or the Character of Rain, holding the projected win. Meanwhile, Bugonia appears poised to surprise across multiple sections depending on voter enthusiasm.
In the international feature, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value from Norway continues to lead the projections.
The outlook predicts that Warner Bros. could emerge as the top-nominated studio with an estimated 30 nods, followed by Netflix with 19, Focus Features with 14, Neon with 13 and A24 with seven.
Though the predictions will continue to shift week by week, they show a clear early distribution of industry strength as the season intensifies.
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