Newsletters
A sweeping analysis published in The Lancet projects that the number of people living with cancer worldwide could rise to an average of 30.5 million by 2050, with deaths reaching about 18.6 million.
The projections come from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) program, a multi-country research effort that measures how diseases, injuries, and risk factors affect population health across the world.
Researchers estimate that global cancer cases, counted at 18.5 million in 2023, will climb steadily through 2050.
Cancer deaths, recorded at 10.4 million in 2023, are also expected to increase year after year.
The study sets out ranges for 2050, suggesting total cases could run between 22.9 million and 38.9 million and deaths between 15.6 million and 21.5 million, with mid-range estimates around 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths.
Breast cancer led all diagnoses in 2023 with about 2.3 million cases, followed by lung and colon cancers.
Lung cancer was the deadliest, with deaths above 2 million, ahead of colon and stomach cancers.
Looking to 2050, the study expects breast and lung cancers to remain the most frequently diagnosed, while lung and colon cancers are projected to cause the most deaths.
2 min read
The analysis identifies 44 risk factors grouped into environmental and occupational, metabolic, and behavioral categories.
These include air pollution, radiation, workplace exposures, obesity, high cholesterol, high blood pressure, smoking, alcohol use, and unhealthy diets.
Behavioral risks weigh most heavily, with smoking singled out as the leading driver.
The study notes that smoking is linked to 16 different cancer types, alcohol to 10, and dietary patterns to 6.
The study points to stark inequalities in outcomes. It estimates that cancer mortality among patients in low-and middle-income countries could approach 90%, compared with roughly 42% in high-income countries.
The findings underline how access to timely diagnosis and effective treatment can shape survival.
Researchers expect childhood and adolescent cancer rates to remain broadly similar to 2023 levels.
They project that cases will pick up among adults aged 40 to 69, while deaths will rise most sharply among those aged 70 and over.
The study emphasizes steps that could reduce both incidence and deaths: changing unhealthy habits, avoiding harmful environmental and occupational exposures, catching cancers earlier, strengthening health systems, addressing unequal access to treatment, and rolling out wider screening.
For clarity, “screening” refers to checks designed to find cancer before symptoms appear, while “early detection” means identifying disease at an earlier, more treatable stage.
3 min read
