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A new study conducted by researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH Zurich) warns that climate change could lead to the disappearance of at least half of the world’s glaciers by the end of the century. The research, published Monday in Nature Climate Change, emphasizes the accelerating pace of glacier loss under current warming trends.
According to the study, the number of glaciers vanishing annually is expected to rise from the current 750–800 per year to between 2,000 and 4,000 per year by mid-century, depending on future temperature increases.
The researchers modeled glacier survival under various global warming scenarios. Their findings indicate that:
“This study illustrates the critical importance of ambitious climate policies in preserving glaciers and mitigating local environmental impacts,” the researchers stated.
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Unlike previous analyses that focused primarily on glacier volume or surface area, this study examined the number of glaciers, highlighting that the loss of even small glaciers can have substantial regional consequences. Glaciers are retreating most rapidly in areas with numerous small ice bodies, such as the Alps and the Caucasus, while larger glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking more slowly.
In Switzerland alone, over 1,000 glaciers have disappeared in the past 30 years, according to co-author Matthias Huss. A glacier is considered to have disappeared when its surface area falls below 0.01 square kilometers or its mass drops below 1% of its original volume.
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