Newsletters
Türkiye’s earthquake early-warning system produced its first alert 8.4 seconds after the magnitude 5 tremor struck the Marmara Sea on Oct. 2. Scientists now plan to place new sensors on the seabed to shorten that crucial interval to 3-6 seconds, offering vital extra time for evacuations and automatic safety actions.
Seabed network expected to reduce natural signal delays
At a briefing in Istanbul, Professor Nurcan Meral Ozel, head of Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute’s Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring Centre, shared new details about the upgraded system. She explained that the technology works by detecting P-waves, the first and non-destructive tremors that travel ahead of the more damaging S-waves.
Current land-based stations in the Marmara region send data with an average delay of 5–6 seconds; however, newly modernized stations have already reduced this to 0.2 seconds. Even so, the lack of real-time seabed equipment means the shaking reaches coastal stations only after a natural 6-second delay, limiting how early the system can react.
The Oct. 2 event highlighted this challenge. The system delivered its alert 8.4 seconds after detecting the first signals, calculating the quake’s epicentre and magnitude using modernised instruments and updated velocity models.
Professor Ozel said the aim is to ensure Istanbul benefits from a “fast and preferred early-warning system” supported by upgraded equipment and newly installed stations. The test system, which initially served a small pilot group, now has 1,500–3,000 active users.
Long-term analyses of offshore faults have relied on ODS sensors, which do not provide real-time data. Deep waters in the Marmara Sea also make installation expensive.
Still, plans are underway to deploy at least five online seabed stations along the northern fault line. Professor Ozel noted that discussions with relevant institutions have already taken place and that the new stations would allow much earlier warnings for offshore rupture zone
Officials also hope to integrate automatic actions into the early-warning workflow. These include stopping metro and train lines, closing gas valves, isolating electrical systems, and triggering evacuation protocols in schools and hospitals.
Kandilli has already launched an early-warning mobile application that delivers alerts directly to users’ phones.
3 min read
