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If countries implement their current emissions-cutting plans under the Paris Agreement and hold end-of-century warming to about 2.6 degrees Celsius (36.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the world could avoid 57 extra hot days every year, according to an analysis by 18 researchers from World Weather Attribution (WWA) and the climate research group Climate Central.
The Paris Agreement—adopted in 2015 and signed in 2016—aims to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and, if possible, at 1.5 degrees Celsius (34.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
Current national plans still fall short of those targets but would nonetheless sharply reduce heat exposure compared with higher-warming futures.
The analysis finds that global temperatures are about 1.3 degrees Celsius (34.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average. Since 2015 alone, warming has risen by 0.3 degrees Celsius (32.5 degrees Fahrenheit), which the researchers link to 11 additional hot days worldwide.
If warming were to reach 4 degrees Celsius (39.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, the world would face an average of 114 hot days each year.
Under the 2.6 degrees Celsius (36.7 degrees Fahrenheit) pathway tied to today’s plans, many countries would see large annual reductions in hot days: Kenya by 82, Mexico by 77, Brazil by 69, Egypt by 36, Australia by 34, India and the United States by 30 each, the United Kingdom and China by 29 each, and Spain by 27.
In the second part of the study, WWA and Climate Central examined six recent heatwaves across Southern Europe, West Africa, the Amazon, Asia, Australia, and North and Central America. With 4 degrees Celsius (39.2° Fahrenheit) of warming, such events could run 3–6 degrees Celsius (37.4–42.8 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter and become 5 to 75 times more likely than today.
If warming were held near 2.6 degrees Celsius (36.7 degrees Fahrenheit), those heatwaves could still be 1.5–3 degrees Celsius (34.7–37.4 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter and 3 to 35 times more likely.
Researchers warn that even 2.6 degrees Celsius (36.7 degrees Fahrenheit) would expose future generations to dangerous heat and serious health risks, and they urge stronger commitments and policies that move faster away from coal, oil, and gas.
Friederike Otto of Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute called the Paris Agreement “a strong and legally binding framework,” to avoid the worst impacts, adding: “However, countries must take more steps to move away from oil, gas and coal… We have all the knowledge and technology needed, but stronger and fairer policies must be implemented quickly.”
Climate Central’s Kristina Dahl similarly underscored that, despite the agreement’s benefits, the world is still heading toward a dangerously hot future without faster action.
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