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Two new studies indicate that more people using smartphones may be a major reason for falling birth rates in the U.S. and other countries.
Governments have mostly missed this factor in their attempts to address demographic changes.
The first study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), looked at why U.S. fertility rates have fallen by 22% since 2007.
Economists, Caitlin Myers of Middlebury College and her student, Ezekiel Hooper, tested whether the iPhone, introduced in 2007, might have influenced this trend.
Until 2011, iPhones were only available through the AT&T network in the U.S., so the researchers compared counties with near-complete AT&T coverage to those with little or no coverage.
They found that access to iPhones was linked to a 4.5% to 8% drop in births among women aged 15 to 19, and a 3.2% to 6.6% drop among women aged 20 to 24. There were also smaller but still significant declines among older women.
The researchers did not say the iPhone was the only cause, but they concluded that smartphones "played a sizable role in the decline in U.S. births" by changing how people interact.
As more people used smartphones, they spent less time with friends in person and had less sexual activity, while pornography use increased. The researchers called this "a possible substitute for partnered sex."
Another study published in May by University of Cincinnati economists Nathan Hudson and Hernan Moscoso Boedo found similar patterns worldwide.
They looked at World Bank data from 128 countries and saw that birth rates dropped faster after smartphones became common.
This trend appeared in countries "with fundamentally different healthcare, welfare, economic, and cultural environments." The researchers called it "a common global technology shock."
However, not all experts agree. Some point out that teenage birth rates in the U.S. have been falling since the early 1990s, long before smartphones were available.
Neither study explains how governments could use these findings to shape policy.
Countries both rich and developing are dealing with lower birth rates, which lead to older populations, smaller workforces, and more strain on social security systems.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control says that fertility rates in America are now at their lowest ever. Major Asian countries are seeing the same trend.
China ended its one-child policy in 2016, and Japan and South Korea have spent a lot on programs to encourage more births, but with little success.
Middle-income countries like India and Brazil are also seeing birth rates drop quickly. In contrast, the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, still have high birth rates.
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