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Two of Türkiye’s leading earthquake experts are at odds over whether the country’s largest city still faces the threat of a devastating quake, following a 6.1-magnitude tremor in Balikesir earlier this week.
Seismologist Sener Usumezsoy argued the long-feared scenario of an 8.0-magnitude earthquake striking Istanbul is no longer valid, claiming fault segments had already ruptured in an April 23 quake.
“There is no long fault left to break in Istanbul,” he said, adding that the April 23 event, which measured 6.2, “completed the broken segment.”
But geoscientist Naci Gorur rejected that assessment, warning that large portions of the Kumburgaz and Adalar faults remain unruptured. “A quake above magnitude 7 in Istanbul is certain,” he said.
Gorur cautioned that dismissing the danger could lead to public complacency, especially given the city’s vulnerable building stock.
The debate comes as Türkiye continues to brace for the possibility of a major earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault, which runs just south of Istanbul in the Marmara Sea.
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