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A plurality of Turkish citizens, 42.4%, believe there is a possibility of a military confrontation between Türkiye and Israel in the coming period, according to a new survey by IstanPol, while 30.8% disagree and roughly 27% are undecided or hold no opinion.
The survey, titled "Changing Power Dynamics in the Middle East and Perceptions of Turkish Foreign Policy," was based on interviews with 1,773 respondents across 21 provinces and 57 districts in Türkiye between June 22-29, 2026.
It used computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) methodology, with quotas based on age, gender, education level and 2023 voting preferences, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3% points at a 95% confidence level.
Belief in a possible military confrontation with Israel varied sharply by political affiliation. Among Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) voters, 62.5% agreed with the statement, the highest of any group.
Among ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) voters, 49.7% agreed, compared with 42.8% of main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) voters. IYI (Good) Party voters were the least likely to agree, at 29.5%, while 47.2% of IYI voters disagreed, the highest disagreement rate among major parties.
The survey found 41.2% of respondents agree that Türkiye's foreign policy toward Israel benefits the Palestinians, while 36.7% disagree.
Support for this view rose to 67.8% among MHP voters and fell to 31.4% among CHP voters.
The survey found broad agreement, 64.3%, that NATO membership benefits Türkiye's security.
However, confidence that NATO would actually defend Türkiye in the event of an attack fell to 43.1%, and confidence that NATO would stand by Türkiye specifically in a crisis with Israel fell further still, to 40.2%.
The IstanPol findings follow a separate MetroPoll survey released this month that found only 28.1% of Turkish citizens believe NATO would support Türkiye in the event of a conflict with Israel, while 62.9% do not.
That survey came amid escalating friction between Ankara and Tel Aviv following Israeli airstrikes on Syria's Abu al-Duhur military airbase, which Israeli officials said were intended to prevent a Turkish military buildup near the Turkish border, a justification Syrian and Turkish officials rejected.
Turkish public skepticism toward Israel has registered consistently in recent polling.
A Pew Research survey conducted between January and April 2025 found 93% of Turkish adults held unfavorable views of Israel, the highest negative sentiment among 24 nations surveyed.
A December 2025 Israeli Society Index poll found the Israeli public ranks Türkiye as the second-most "threatening country" to Israel, after Iran.
One of the survey's clearest points of consensus concerned the Iran war.
56% of respondents agreed that the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran was "an unjust act of aggression," with agreement exceeding 56% among voters of every major party, from AK Party to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party).
By contrast, opinion was sharply divided on whether military intervention is legitimate to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, with only 34.1% agreeing overall, rising to 53.5% among MHP voters and falling to 20.4% among IYI Party voters.
Asked which side won the U.S.-Iran war, 37.9% of respondents named Iran, 13.6% named the U.S.-Israel side, 24.4% said both sides gained equally, and 24.2% said they had no opinion.
Meanwhile, 46.4% said they considered Türkiye's policy during the conflict to have been successful, while agreement that Iran poses a regional threat to Türkiye remained limited, at 33.2%.
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