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New arrests in the ongoing investigation into Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality have brought the case back into headlines. At least 40 individuals were detained in the latest operation targeting corruption allegations. Many got arrested among them. Regardless of the details of the upcoming indictment against Imamoglu, the case is largely seen as a political case. If the indictment is strong, this may change over time.
How the AK Party sees the process: The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is not naive. The party is aware that the case is largely seen as political, with many perceiving it as the president imprisoning his biggest political rival. You would be shocked to know how many comprehensive public surveys the AK Party conducts via independent, renowned companies on a regular basis. The party knows the political repercussions of the Imamoglu case and the possible chaos that could follow the arrests.
However, the AK Party views former Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as a politician with plastic charisma—photogenic, maybe even likable to some, but fundamentally hollow. In one of the first tweets after his arrest, Imamoglu said, he read Ataturk’s book “Nutuk,” the Holy Quran, leftist poet Nazim Hikmet’s works and Alawite icon Haci Bektas-i Veli’s teachings, apparently sending political messages to a wide range of the Turkish public. The AK Party sees Imamoglu’s political rhetoric—his attempt to send “roses” to every part of the political spectrum—as “plastic, fake and ungenuine.”
AK Party’s management thinks that Imamoglu is seen not as a leader who inspires, but as a figure who skillfully capitalized on anti-AK Party sentiment in 2019 without building a lasting or ideologically rooted movement. In contrast, for the AK Party, President Erdogan is seen as a figure of deep, enduring political identity, shaped by decades of activism, conflict, and leadership. The difference is not just one of experience, but of authenticity. Therefore, AK Party predicts the attention will move away from Imamoglu’s personality in the coming months, and “he might be forgotten” somehow.
Second, the ongoing investigation appears to be politically damaging for the CHP. The party has become consumed by the Imamoglu case, unable to build momentum on other issues or offer a broader vision to the public. They organize political rallies in AK Party strongholds where the ruling party seems to be losing ground, but their sole focus is Imamoglu. Instead of presenting a robust opposition platform, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) finds itself stuck defending one figure, making its approach more reactive than proactive.
Despite the recent arrests, the Imamoglu story is slowly losing traction in public discourse. It's not dominating the political conversation the way it once did. This suggests that the AK Party’s strategy may be working: drawing CHP into a narrow battlefield and allowing public interest to wane while the government continues its work largely unchallenged.
What happened this week: The corruption probe into the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality intensified with a fourth wave of arrests. Prosecutors ordered the detention of more than 40 suspects, mainly targeting a network allegedly involved in tender manipulation and irregular contracting within municipal subsidiaries. This operation follows a series of earlier waves that have steadily expanded the scope of the investigation.
According to Turkish media, these detentions relate to a yearslong scheme involving alleged favoritism, bribery, and illicit enrichment through public tenders. The probe, initiated in late 2023, has now implicated numerous former municipal employees and associates. While CHP frames the investigation as politically motivated, government officials insist it’s part of a broader anti-corruption effort.
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