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This article was originally written for Türkiye Today’s weekly economy newsletter, Turkish Economy in Brief, in its Nov. 24 issue. Please make sure you are subscribed to the newsletter by clicking here.
Concerns about a possible “bubble” in the valuations of U.S. technology companies, along with the decline in bitcoin, have been shaping global markets lately. After topping $126,000 in October, bitcoin slipped to around the $80,000 level last week. Markets are trying to make sense of this drop of more than 30% from the peak in a short time.
Even after the latest crash, bitcoin’s market value hovering around $1.7 trillion makes this fall more significant, given its growing integration into the global economy, its increasing use as collateral in various transactions, and its role in leveraged trading.
Whether the shock in bitcoin will spill over into other markets is being watched closely as a risk factor. Let’s also recall that this year, bitcoin saw its lowest level of the year at $74,400 in April, when U.S. tariffs were first announced.
Meanwhile, under the shadow of the “AI bubble” debate, U.S. tech giant Nvidia reported earnings per share of $1.3 for the third quarter, beating the market expectation of $1.25. Quarterly revenue also came in strong at $57.01 billion, above forecasts. From here on, the financial results of major tech firms will likely remain a key indicator for overall market sentiment.
Turning back to the Turkish economy … on the geopolitical front, developments that closely concern Türkiye are unfolding. Efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war are entering a critical phase. A new U.S.-backed 28-point peace plan has come to the fore, and there are reports that a ceasefire agreement could be secured soon.
Türkiye has important ties with both countries, which are effectively neighbors across the Black Sea. In an environment where fighting ends, positive momentum could emerge in many sectors—especially construction and contracting linked to Ukraine’s reconstruction, as well as food and tourism.
At the same time, since both countries are major exporters of energy and grain, a ceasefire could ease global pressure on commodity prices, and even lead to declines. This would be positive for Türkiye’s current account balance, given that the country is a net energy importer.
According to the latest data, Türkiye’s current account posted a surplus of $1.112 billion in September. The surplus was $1.738 billion in July and $5.418 billion in August, meaning the current account has remained positive for three consecutive months. It is worth noting here that low energy prices and strong tourism revenues have been key contributors to this outcome.
A current account surplus helps reduce risks on foreign exchange rates and supports the Turkish lira. This, in turn, creates a more favorable macroeconomic environment, including for disinflation.
With these developments, positive winds are also blowing through Turkish markets. The BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul closed last week up 3.38% at 10,922.86 points. Alongside ceasefire expectations in the Russia-Ukraine war, better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, forecasts for lower inflation in November, and expectations that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) may continue rate cuts at its December meeting have been supporting equities.
Since Oct. 3, the index has struggled for about seven weeks to break above the 11,150-resistance level, and it is now approaching that level again. Technically, a clear move above this point could open the door to more positive pricing. It is also useful to note that the 50-day moving average, currently around 10,950, has acted as an important resistance since early October. On the downside, holding above the 10,800 support—tested in Friday’s trading last week—remains important.
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