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Before the fall of the Assad regime, the number of Syrian refugees in Türkiye stood at 2.94 million. As of Oct. 9, this number had decreased to 2.42 million. Taking into account new births, the total number of returnees to Syria surpassed 520,000. However, a closer look at the data reveals notable regional differences in the parts of Türkiye from which Syrians have returned.
According to the latest figures, approximately 18% of all Syrian refugees in Türkiye have returned to Syria since the fall of the Assad regime. Among Turkish provinces, the largest percentage of returns occurred from Hatay, a province bordering Syria. Roughly 29% of all Syrians living in Hatay have gone back.
But why are Syrians in Hatay more willing to return than those in other Turkish provinces?
After speaking with Syrians, I identified two main reasons. The first is the impact of the 2023 earthquake. Hatay was one of the most, if not the most, affected provinces in Türkiye.
Although the reconstruction process is progressing relatively fast, government rehabilitation efforts have reached the daily lives of Syrian refugees more slowly than those of Turkish citizens. The second reason concerns the refugees’ places of origin in Syria. Many Syrians in Hatay come from areas that are relatively less affected by the war and can therefore return more easily than refugees in Gaziantep, who mostly come from devastated parts of Aleppo. Gaziantep’s return rate stands at 18%.
Among all provinces adjacent to the Syrian border, Sanliurfa has the lowest return rate with 16%. Despite Sanliurfa being relatively less attractive economically, returns there have remained low because most Syrian refugees in the province are from Deir el-Zour. Since the SDF still controls the eastern side of the Euphrates River inDeir el-Zour, many refugees are unable or unwilling to return, fearing life on the front line. Another border province, Kilis, has seen 22% of Syrian refugees return since the fall of the Assad regime.
Moving farther from the Syrian border, the number of returnees decreases. Approximately 18% of Syrians in Istanbul have returned, compared to 17% in Mersin, 16% in Bursa, 15% in Ankara, 14% in Adana, 13% in Konya, and 12% in Izmir.
In 2018, only 5% of Kilis’ residents were Turkish citizens, with Syrians accounting for about 95%. Today, that figure has fallen to 24.3%. Their proportion has also fallen to 13.4% in Gaziantep, 9.1% in Hatay, 8.4% in Sanliurfa, 7.4% in Adana, 7.3% in Mersin, and 4.9% in Kahramanmaras.
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