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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year without a clear military resolution in sight. With the frontlines largely static and a Trumpian approach to negotiations with Russia, the situation is increasingly shifting from battlefield dynamics to what a future ceasefire might look like.
In this emerging debate, Türkiye becomes indispensable.
Without Ankara, a ceasefire monitoring mission and security guarantees for Ukraine become unrealistic.
Türkiye is the only NATO member that has maintained open lines to both Kyiv and Moscow since February 2022. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosted the first and only direct peace talks between the two sides in Istanbul in March 2022.
The effort almost ended in a peace settlement, but the Russian massacre in Bucha and the intervention of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson prevented it. Although it didn’t result in peace, it produced the framework for the Black Sea Grain Initiative—an agreement that allowed millions of tons of Ukrainian grain to reach global markets despite the war.
Unlike other mediators, Türkiye brings a rare mix of credibility and necessity.
To Moscow, Ankara is not a hostile Western power: it has refused to join EU sanctions, deepened energy trade with Russia, and kept ties alive.
To Kyiv, Türkiye has provided arms shipments, backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and enforced the Montreux Convention in the Black Sea. Ankara, therefore, occupies a middle ground that no other actor can replicate.
A future ceasefire—whether temporary or more enduring—will require three things: security guarantees credible enough for Ukraine to accept, and a neutral channel Moscow can engage. The United States, the EU, or even the U.N. alone cannot provide both.
But Türkiye, with its balancing diplomacy, NATO membership, and direct stake in Black Sea security, could anchor such a mission. And the most important aspect: capacity. Türkiye is not only the only politically viable option but also militarily capable, which is indeed a very unique position.
Engaging Türkiye in a structured ceasefire mission would not only leverage its diplomatic reach but also reinforce NATO’s relevance in conflict resolution beyond deterrence.
Türkiye may play a vital role in monitoring a potential ceasefire in the air, on the ground, and in the sea.
Only Romania, Bulgaria, and Türkiye from the NATO alliance have permanent access to the Black Sea.
If the world wants a ceasefire that serves as a bridge rather than a trap, it will need a capable force willing to act and that can deliver concessions from Moscow without alienating Kyiv.
Only Türkiye has proven capable of doing so.
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