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A classified Israeli military intelligence database indicates that at least 83% of Palestinians killed in Gaza were civilians, contradicting public statements by Israeli officials who have claimed a much lower civilian casualty ratio throughout the war.
The findings, revealed through a joint investigation by +972 Magazine, Local Call and the Guardian, are based on data from an internal Israeli military database that tracks Hamas deaths. As of May, when Gaza's overall death toll stood at 53,000, Israeli intelligence had confirmed or considered "probably dead" approximately 8,900 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives.
The database is managed by the Military Intelligence Directorate and contains 47,653 names of Palestinians considered active in the military wings of Hamas and PIJ. Multiple intelligence sources described it as the army's only authoritative count of Hamas casualties, with one source stating: "There's no other place to check."
The civilian casualty ratio suggested by the data far exceeds what experts consider typical in modern warfare. According to Uppsala Conflict Data Programme researcher Therese Pettersson, such proportions are "unusually high, particularly as it has been going on for such a long time." Similar ratios in global conflicts since 1989 occurred only during the genocides in Srebrenica and Rwanda, and Russia's siege of Mariupol in 2022.
Throughout the war, Israeli officials have consistently claimed lower civilian-to-combatant ratios. In December 2023, Israeli army spokesperson Jonathan Conricus told CNN that Israel had killed two civilians for every Hamas member, calling it "tremendously positive." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed ratios closer to 1:1.
However, the investigation found that public casualty figures for Hamas members have fluctuated dramatically without clear explanation. In November 2023, officials suggested 10,000 Hamas members had been killed, but this dropped to 7,860 a month later. By August 2024, the army claimed 17,000 Hamas deaths, which then decreased to 14,000 in October.
Intelligence sources indicated that inflated numbers likely came from an older, less accurate database maintained by the army's Southern Command, which estimated Hamas casualties without named verification. "Those numbers are tall tales of the Southern Command," one intelligence source said.
The investigation uncovered evidence of systematic misreporting of civilian deaths as Hamas casualties. In one documented case, a battalion in Rafah killed approximately 100 Palestinians and recorded them all as "terrorists," though an officer testified that all but two were unarmed.
"People are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death," said one intelligence source who accompanied ground forces. "If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200 percent of Hamas operatives in the area."
Retired Major General Itzhak Brik, former commander of Israeli military colleges, described the official numbers as "one of the most serious bluffs" in Israel's history. "They lie non-stop — both the military echelon and the political echelon," Brik said.
Despite the extensive casualties, the database indicates nearly 40,000 people considered Hamas members by Israeli intelligence remain alive, suggesting the conflict's continuation could produce similar casualty patterns. The database shows Israel has killed only one-fifth of those it considers to be Hamas members, while American intelligence estimates suggest Hamas has recruited 15,000 operatives during the war — twice as many as Israel killed.
Intelligence sources acknowledged their database likely undercounts total Hamas deaths, as it excludes unidentified fighters and civilians who participated in combat without formal group membership. However, recent studies suggest the Gaza Health Ministry's death toll may also significantly undercount total casualties.
The findings raise questions about compliance with international humanitarian law, which requires military forces to distinguish between civilians and combatants and to ensure attacks are proportionate.
The investigation revealed that after October 7, Israeli forces significantly loosened restrictions on civilian casualties, authorizing the killing of more than 100 Palestinian civilians when targeting senior Hamas commanders and up to 20 for junior operatives.
The Israeli military initially did not dispute the database's existence when contacted by +972 Magazine and Local Call. However, after the Guardian's inquiry, a spokesperson said they wanted to "rephrase" their response and rejected the findings without detailed explanation, calling the figures "incorrect" without specifying which data was disputed.
The current Gaza death toll has risen to approximately 62,000, according to health authorities. The ratio of civilian casualties among the dead may have increased further since May, when Israel tried to replace UN and humanitarian organizations that had fed Palestinians throughout the war.
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