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Rumors and concerns reportedly grow regarding "Türkiye becoming Israel's next target" following an Israeli airstrike on Hamas officials in Qatar, with defense officials warning the attack could "drag the entire region into disaster."
Turkish Defense Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would "further expand its reckless attacks, as it did in Qatar, and drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster."
The warning comes as relations between Israel and Türkiye have reached an all-time low over the Gaza war that began with the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack in southern Israel.
The two countries, once regional partners, have seen ties deteriorate since the late 2000s.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian cause, has repeatedly criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with strident rhetoric since the Gaza war began, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler.
According to the Associated Press' (AP) report published on Sunday, Hamas officials regularly visit Türkiye, with some taking up residence there. Israel has previously accused Türkiye of allowing Hamas to plan attacks from its territory and conduct recruitment and fundraising activities.
Speaking to the Associated Press (AP), Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Trends Research and Advisory's Türkiye program, said, "Israel's ability to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, often bypassing regional air defenses and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara."
Cubukcuoglu added that Türkiye sees these attacks as a "broader Israeli strategy to establish a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states around it."
Despite concerns, Türkiye maintains significant military advantages over Qatar. As a NATO member, Türkiye would appear to have greater protection against Israeli attacks than Qatar, despite the Gulf state's close U.S. ties.
The Turkish armed forces are second in size only to the U.S. among NATO countries and backed by an advanced defense industry. During Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in June, Erdogan announced increased missile production.
Last month, he inaugurated Türkiye's "Steel Dome" integrated air defense system, while projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Also speaking to AP, Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, stated an Israeli airstrike on NATO member territory would be "extremely unlikely," though small-scale bomb or gun attacks on potential Hamas targets in Türkiye by Israeli agents could be possible.
The greater danger may lie in Syria, where Unluhisarcikli described Israel and Türkiye as being "on a collision course."
"To think that targeting Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria would be to go too far is wishful thinking," he said.
Since Syrian forces unseated Bashar al-Assad in December, tensions between Türkiye and Israel have intensified in Syria, with Ankara supporting the new interim government.
Israel views the new Syrian government with suspicion, having occupied a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria and launched hundreds of airstrikes on Syrian military facilities.
Turkish and Israeli officials held talks in April to establish a "de-escalation mechanism" in Syria following Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Türkiye had purportedly planned to use. Netanyahu said at the time that Turkish bases in Syria would be a "danger to Israel."
Ankara and Damascus signed an agreement last month on Türkiye providing military training and advice to Syria's armed forces.
"This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel may eventually extend such operations to Turkish territory," Cubukcuoglu said.
"The Turkish government calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional influence, while standing firm bolsters its role as a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression," he noted.
The Qatar attack showed there was "no limit to what the Israeli government can do," Unluhisarcikli concluded.
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