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A new scientific assessment has warned that nearly one in four matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup could be played in very hot conditions, with climate change increasing the likelihood of extreme heat across North America since the United States last hosted the tournament in 1994.
The research, released Thursday by the climate science network World Weather Attribution (WWA), found that players and fans may face significantly greater heat-related risks during the tournament, which will run from June 11 to July 19 across 16 stadiums in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
FIFA has already moved to address concerns around rising temperatures by requiring cooling breaks during each half of World Cup matches.
According to WWA, around 26 of the tournament’s 104 matches could take place in conditions reaching at least 26 degrees Celsius on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) scale, an index that measures how effectively the body can cool itself by factoring in heat, humidity, sunlight and wind.
The international footballers’ union, FIFPRO, recommends cooling breaks once WBGT reaches 26C, as heat strain becomes a meaningful concern for players.
Researchers said the risk has risen compared with the 1994 World Cup in the United States, when an estimated 21 matches would have reached a similar heat threshold. Of the projected high-risk matches in 2026, 17 are scheduled at stadiums equipped with cooling systems, which may help ease conditions for players and spectators.
The analysis also found that five matches could be played in conditions of 28C WBGT or above, a level at which FIFPRO recommends delaying or postponing matches until conditions become safer.
Scientists said this level of risk has nearly doubled since the 1994 tournament.
WWA co-founder and climate science professor at Imperial College London, Friederike Otto, warned that high temperatures could affect not only players but also spectators gathering outdoors, who may face greater exposure.
“It’s dangerous for players, but of course there are also the fans who might gather outdoors and they are at even more risk because they will not be taken care of by a lot of medical doctors,” Otto said.
Only three of the 16 World Cup venues, in Dallas, Houston and Atlanta — are air-conditioned, according to the report. Researchers noted that more than a third of matches carrying a one-in-ten chance of exceeding the 26C WBGT threshold are expected to take place in stadiums without air conditioning.
The final, scheduled for July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, was found to carry a one-in-eight chance of reaching 26C WBGT conditions, along with a smaller risk of surpassing the 28C threshold.
Otto described the possibility of the World Cup final being played in what she called “cancellation-level” heat as a warning sign for football authorities and fans.
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