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Economic concerns are shaping U.S. voters’ choices ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, while the war with Iran is further eroding support for Republicans among some voters, according to Brent Buchanan, CEO and founder of U.S. polling firm Cygnal.
Buchanan told Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency that the cost of living was by far the most important issue for voters, with rising gasoline prices, electricity and natural gas bills and grocery costs weighing heavily on their decisions.
“The first issue is the cost of living, the second issue is the cost of living, and the third issue is the cost of living,” Buchanan said, adding that illegal immigration, a major issue in the 2024 presidential election, had fallen down the agenda.
He said voters earning less than $50,000 annually had shifted 25 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election.
According to Buchanan, some voters who backed U.S. President Donald Trump expecting him to bring living costs under control now believe he has failed to do so and made conditions worse.
Buchanan said the Iran war had become both an economic and political liability for Republicans, particularly among voters who supported Trump in 2024 but are no longer planning to vote Republican.
When those voters were asked what could persuade them to support Trump again, “ending the Iran war” ranked first, he said.
Buchanan said Trump’s campaign pledge to end wars and avoid starting new ones had appealed particularly to younger and less frequent voters.
He also said many Americans linked the Iran war directly to higher gasoline prices.
“There is no appetite among voters for more war,” Buchanan said. “The only exception would be if somehow it could be explained that such a move would lower gasoline prices. But I don’t think voters today are in a position to believe such an explanation.”
While some hawkish Republicans favor a broader military campaign against Iran, Buchanan said those voters already support the Republican Party, while moderate and undecided voters who can determine close elections want peace.
Buchanan said Cygnal polling found Americans’ support for Israel’s right to defend itself was similar to their support for Ukraine’s right to self-defense.
However, he said some voters who want both conflicts brought to an end believe Israel influenced the U.S. decision to enter the war with Iran.
Although that group is not a large share of the electorate, Buchanan said it could still matter in races decided by narrow margins.
He said discomfort with U.S. involvement in the Iran war was particularly important among voters who supported Trump because of his promise to end conflicts.
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