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Russian forces have made a sudden thrust into eastern Ukraine, advancing up to 15 kilometers (9.32 miles) near the coal mining town of Dobropillia in the Donetsk region, with analysts debating whether the push constitutes a genuine breakthrough. The move comes as U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin prepare to meet Friday in Alaska—a summit the world will be watching.
Ukraine's DeepState war map showed Tuesday that Russian forces had advanced by at least 10 kilometers in two prongs in recent days, part of their drive to take full control of Ukraine's Donetsk region.
The advance is one of the most dramatic in the last year, although analysts said the Russians were using small groups of soldiers to try to establish footholds and that it was uncertain if they could maintain their positions in the face of a Ukrainian pushback.
The DeepState map now shows the grey zone touching the Dobropillia-Kramatorsk highway, which was used regularly by civilian and military traffic just weeks ago.
DeepState said the Russians had surged forward near three villages on a section of the frontline associated with the Ukrainian towns of Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk, which Moscow is trying to encircle by exploiting Kyiv's lack of manpower.
"The situation is quite chaotic, as the enemy, having found gaps in the defense, is infiltrating deeper, trying to quickly consolidate and accumulate forces for further advancement," DeepState said on its Telegram channel.
The Russian advance threatens to cut off a vital road linking Dobropillia to Kramatorsk, the de facto capital of Ukrainian-held Donetsk region, which the Russians aim to capture, while allowing the Kremlin's forces to bypass and flank a belt of fortifications and defensive lines built in recent months.
Dobropillia lies 94 kilometers northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk and about 22 kilometers north of the embattled city of Pokrovsk. Russia has been trying to advance in this area for months.
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated on its assessment on Tuesday it might be premature to call the Russian advances in the Dobropillia area an operational-level breakthrough, stating: "The Russian penetration near Dobropillya is notably a deeper and faster tactical push than those that Russian forces have recently achieved, but Russia's ability to mature these tactical advances into an operational-level breakthrough in the near future is not certain."
"Russian forces have been fighting since February 2024 to advance west of Avdiivka. Russian forces, with their recent penetration near Zolotyi Kolodyaz have advanced 55 kilometers in depth over the past 17 months," ISW noted.
Russian forces have lost well over five divisions' worth of armored vehicles and tanks in Pokrovsk Raion since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in the summer of 2024," ISW said.
The ISW added that Russia is likely focusing on advances toward Dobropillia to set informational conditions ahead of the Friday summit in Alaska between Trump and Putin.
"Russian officials are attempting to exploit the tactical penetration near Dobropillya to influence the upcoming US-Russia summit in Alaska, but the Kremlin's overall strategic objective is to break the will of Ukraine, the United States, and Europe in order to achieve Russia's longstanding demand for full Ukrainian capitulation," ISW noted.
Speaking to Türkiye Today, Atum Mundi director Clement Molin said, "The “Russian breakthrough” was made possible by several factors. First, the lack of troops on the Ukrainian side. There are several causes: deaths, injuries, deserters, but also the difficulty of mobilization, because Ukrainian demographics are unfavorable. Added to this is a growing front, from the mouth of the Dnieper to Chernihiv Oblast, and the fighting in Kharkiv and Sumy is stretching the Ukrainian presence."
"In addition, the Ukrainians must guard the Belarusian and Transnistrian borders, and the rear of the front, particularly against long-range drone attacks," he added.
"On the front, Russian superiority is blatant: more troops, more drones, and an overwhelming superiority of fire. 3,500 guided bombs have been launched in the Pokrovsk-Kostianynivka sector in three months, including 1,400 in the past month," he noted.
"In fact, the Ukrainians are not really holding the front in a hard way, there is a spacing between the occupied positions. What happened was a deep penetration between these positions of small groups of Russians, to the point of causing a sufficiently large breakthrough of the Ukrainian lines, over about 15 km," Molin stated.
"The situation is not new, it is the fourth time that this has happened since the beginning of 2024, but this time, the breakthrough is wider. The Russian forces have thus managed to gain a foothold in the solid Ukrainian defense line built to the west of the major Ukrainian cities," Molin explained.
"Can we call it a breakthrough? It all depends on the definition we give it. This has nothing to do with the mechanized breakthrough of the Ukrainian army in Kharkiv in 2022, but it is a breakthrough of small groups of deep infantry, which should not be followed by deep exploitation. However, this infiltration will be followed by others, even deeper, which should threaten the town of Pokrovsk, or even Dobropillia, with falling or being surrounded," he added.
"As Trump and Putin prepare to meet in Alaska, the Russian army is pushing on the Pokrovsk front to secure a tactical victory by further isolating the Ukrainian army in different pockets. In their sights are two cities, Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad and Kramatorsk-Sloviansk-Kostiantynivka. However, the current advance does not endanger the front in general; a collapse is not yet on the agenda," Molin concluded.
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