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Tensions in South Asia flared once again on May 7, when Indian military forces launched strikes along the Line of Control, reportedly targeting three positions in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. According to Indian army officials, the shelling began at 1:05 a.m. local time and lasted for 25 minutes.
In response, Pakistan’s military confirmed the attacks and reported 26 fatalities, including children, and 46 injuries. South Asia, home to over 2 billion people, remains one of the world's most densely populated and geopolitically volatile regions. Among its many enduring disputes, the Kashmir conflict stands as the most protracted and dangerous. Since gaining independence from British rule in 1947 through a flawed partition, India and Pakistan have clashed repeatedly over this mountainous territory.
The root of the Kashmir issue lies in the princely state’s ambiguous accession post-British withdrawal. Though predominantly Muslim, Kashmir was ruled by a Hindu maharaja who initially pursued independence. Facing pressure from invading Pakistani tribal forces, the maharaja opted to accede to India in return for military support. This act ignited the first Indo-Pak war, leading the United Nations to intervene and propose a cease-fire and plebiscite—conditions that remain unmet to this day.
Following decades of tension, both India and Pakistan pursued nuclear capabilities to balance regional power. India, anxious about China’s 1964 nuclear test, conducted its first test in 1974. Pakistan responded in 1998, backed significantly by China’s support. This mutual nuclear status shifted full-scale war into the realm of low-intensity conflicts and diplomatic brinkmanship.
Scholar Kaan Kilic of the Turkish National Defence University highlights in the his recent study, the “stability-instability paradox”, where nuclear deterrence prevents total war but emboldens nations to engage in frequent skirmishes.
This explains the recurring yet limited clashes along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
According to Kilic’s recent research, three main resolution scenarios for Kashmir exist, ranked from least to most probable:
Kilic’s analysis underscores the widespread human rights violations in both Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-controlled Azad Kashmir. India’s 2019 Citizenship Amendment Act has also intensified local grievances and global scrutiny. Still, strategic interests—such as Pakistan’s role in China's Belt and Road Initiative and U.S. balancing efforts between India and Pakistan—mean external powers favor maintaining the current impasse.
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