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A former U.S. general and CIA director warned Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will invade a NATO country if he succeeds in Ukraine, with Lithuania likely to be his primary target.
David Petraeus, who served as CIA chief and led coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, said Russia could launch an incursion into the Baltic state to test Western resolve or as preparation for a broader offensive.
Speaking at the Policy Exchange think-tank in London, Petraeus criticized both current President Donald Trump and his predecessor Joe Biden for their handling of the Ukraine crisis, saying the U.S. has repeatedly failed to provide adequate support to Ukrainian forces.
"What we've seen is three incidences where the U.S. President has threatened that in two weeks we'll have to take a different approach," Petraeus said. "We'll see this time what actually happens."
The warning comes as Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has echoed Russian positions on NATO expansion, calling Moscow's concerns about eastward enlargement "fair." Kellogg reiterated the administration's stance that Ukraine joining NATO "is not on the table."
"We've said that to us, Ukraine coming into Nato is not on the table, and we're not the only country that says that," Kellogg told ABC News, noting that unanimous agreement from all 32 NATO members would be required.
Petraeus argued that the U.S. delayed critical military aid to Ukraine, including M1 Abrams tanks and F-16 fighter jets, hampering Ukrainian forces' ability to change battlefield dynamics.
"Each time they'd have to ask and wait, and then we'd say no, and then maybe, and then eventually they'd get it," he said. "This was very unhelpful to the Ukrainians."
According to Petraeus, Russia's ultimate goal is to topple Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and "install a puppet leader and to control all of Ukraine." Once achieved, he predicted Putin would shift focus to the Baltic states.
"Lithuania has featured prominently in his speeches and we should have listened a lot more," Petraeus said.
The former general described Russian battlefield losses as "unimaginable," with nearly one million Russian casualties, including 500,000 killed or rendered unfit for frontline duty. Kellogg estimated total casualties from both sides at 1.2 million.
Despite the mounting losses, Russia appears to be delaying peace negotiations to capture additional Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin has rejected repeated Ukrainian offers of a 30-day ceasefire, demanding its grievances be addressed before fighting stops.
Kellogg said Trump was "frustrated" with Russia due to Putin's "level of unreasonableness," particularly regarding strikes on Ukrainian cities. However, the U.S. has yet to effectively pressure Moscow toward negotiations.
Petraeus also called for Britain to withdraw from international agreements banning cluster munitions, arguing these weapons could serve as essential deterrents against Russian aggression.
As European allies conduct NATO exercises in the Baltic region and strengthen military cooperation, the American position on the conflict remains uncertain, with the administration maintaining its opposition to Ukrainian NATO membership while seeking to broker peace talks.
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