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Signatories of the landmark Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty will meet at the U.N. from Monday as tensions between nuclear powers grow and hopes fade that states can reach an agreement at the four-week summit.
The upcoming meeting follows the last treaty review in 2022, when U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that humanity was "one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation."
Izumi Nakamitsu, the U.N. High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, said there is now a shared sense of crisis among states parties.
"I think there is a shared, if you will, sense of crisis by all states parties," Nakamitsu said.
She pointed to the February expiration of the New Start treaty between Moscow and Washington, saying there are no longer any bilateral arms control agreements between the two largest nuclear-weapon states.
"We are also beginning to see a quantitative increase of nuclear capabilities in all nuclear-weapon states," she said.
Nakamitsu said rising geopolitical tensions had halted the post-Cold War trend of disarmament.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed by almost all countries, aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote complete disarmament, and encourage cooperation on civilian nuclear projects.
Israel, India and Pakistan are among the notable countries that are not signatories.
The nine nuclear-armed states—Russia, the U.S., France, the U.K., China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea—had 12,241 nuclear warheads in January 2025, according to the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The U.S. and Russia hold nearly 90% of the world's nuclear weapons and have carried out major modernization programs in recent years, according to the institute.
China has also rapidly increased its nuclear stockpile, while the G-7 on Friday raised alarm over Russia and China expanding their nuclear capabilities.
U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he wants to conduct new nuclear tests, saying "other countries are doing it too."
In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a major shift in nuclear deterrence, including an increase in France's nuclear arsenal, which currently numbers 290 warheads.
Decisions on the treaty require consensus.
The previous two review conferences failed to adopt final political declarations.
In 2015, the deadlock was largely linked to Washington's opposition to the creation of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East.
In 2022, the impasse was mainly due to Russian opposition to references to Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is occupied by Moscow.
This year's summit could face several obstacles, including the war in Ukraine; Iran's nuclear program and the war there, fears among non-nuclear states over proliferation, and North Korea's developing arsenal.
Seth Sheldon of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, said trust was eroding both inside and outside the treaty.
"It is obvious that trust is eroding, both inside and outside the NPT," Sheldon said.
Christopher King, the conference's secretary-general, said a third consecutive failure would not mean the treaty would "implode overnight."
But he warned there was a risk, "it would, over time, unravel."
Artificial intelligence could also emerge as a prominent issue at the meeting.
Some countries are calling for all sides to keep human control over nuclear weapons.
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