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Russia does not currently have the forces to launch a major attack on NATO because its military remains tied up in Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in remarks reported Monday.
Speaking to Polish public broadcaster TVP Info, Sikorski said Moscow could instead attempt a smaller-scale provocation designed to create disagreement among NATO allies, including over whether the alliance's Article 5 mutual defense clause should apply.
His comments followed a warning last week that Warsaw had received information from multiple sources indicating that Russia was "preparing something big this year."
"Of course only Putin knows that, but we must be ready, we must not let ourselves be manipulated, and we must be vigilant, so that as an alliance we can react immediately to any provocation," Sikorski said.
Sikorski said Russia's military commitments in Ukraine limited its ability to carry out a large-scale attack against NATO.
"Russia doesn't have the forces for a major attack on NATO," he said. "All its forces are tied up in Ukraine."
He said Moscow could instead pursue "something on a smaller scale that might cause some controversy among allies."
Sikorski suggested such an incident could be intended to create disagreement between European NATO members and the U.S. over whether it crossed the threshold for triggering Article 5.
An action that led allies to debate "whether this is already NATO Article 5 or not" would suit Moscow, he said.
Sikorski said Russia could "do more aggressively what it's already doing" and urged NATO members to remain prepared for possible provocations.
Western governments have accused Moscow of sabotage and airspace incursions as part of what they describe as a wider campaign of hybrid warfare targeting NATO and European Union countries.
Sikorski said the alliance should remain vigilant and be prepared to respond immediately to any provocation.
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