Newsletters
The presidential elections in Colombia will likely have significant consequences for the country’s economy, peace process, and relations with the U.S. The two rival candidates have vastly different visions for Colombia's future.
This Sunday, Colombians will head to the polls to elect their next president, who will serve a single four-year term. In an unprecedented move, the United States has openly endorsed conservative candidate Abelardo de la Espriella.
Colombia’s relations with the United States have suffered setbacks over the last couple of years under the country’s first left-wing president, Gustavo Petro. Traditionally, Colombia, under right-wing governments, has been a key ally of the United States in Latin America. The United States hopes that de la Espriella, an admirer of President Trump, can steer the country back to those days.
The first round of the elections took place on May 30. With none of the candidates receiving more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates, de la Espriella and Senator Ivan Cepeda qualified for the second round.
De la Espriella, who captured 43.7% of the vote in the first round, is more than just an admirer of President Trump. In many ways, he is reminiscent of him. As a right-wing outsider from a wealthy background, he built a massive public profile as a high-society defense attorney representing high-profile figures, including organized crime bosses, translating that celebrity appeal into political momentum.
Ironically, his main promise is to restore law and order by escalating pressure on organized crime and armed groups across Colombia. Mirroring President Trump, he remains highly critical of the political establishment while running on a staunchly nationalist and conservative platform.
His aggressive political style has earned him the nickname "el Tigre." He strongly opposes Colombia’s peace agreement with the leftist insurgency group Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Signed in 2016, that accord earned former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos the Nobel Peace Prize.
In foreign policy, he aims to strengthen ties with the United States and Israel. His economic strategy is heavily inspired by Argentine President Javier Milei, focusing on deregulation alongside sweeping cuts to taxes and government spending.
His contender, Cepeda, comes from a political family.
His father, who was also a senator, was assassinated by far-right paramilitary groups. A lifelong human rights activist, Cepeda represents the progressive left and offers a political continuation of President Petro's platform. Consequently, his policies stand in stark opposition to those of de la Espriella.
Cepeda supports the peace agreement with FARC and wants to negotiate with armed groups in the country to reassert the central government’s grip. He plans to invest in green energy and health care. His left-leaning economic agenda will probably not help U.S. mining and oil companies in Colombia. Cepeda fights to prove that left-wing politics can remain in the highest office in Colombian politics and deliver results.
Recent polling shows de la Espriella holds a slight lead over Cepeda, though the race remains within the margin of error. A victory for de la Espriella would significantly bolster the Trump administration’s efforts to maintain regional dominance in the Western Hemisphere and counter growing Chinese influence. Conversely, a Cepeda win would likely prompt a more cautious initial approach from Washington, placing the responsibility on the new leftist leader to establish a working relationship with President Trump.
Both candidates will have to tackle the question of state control and armed groups in Colombia. Currently, the Colombian government has limited control over about 40% of its territory, which harbors numerous armed groups. However, the candidates' vastly different stances on this issue could bring Colombia to a crossroads regarding its peace and stability.
Nevertheless, the winner will face an uphill battle to solve Colombia’s problems
Set as preferred source
Set as preferred source
3 min read
