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International credit rating agency Fitch has lowered its average five-year potential growth forecast for a group of 10 major developing economies from 4% to 3.9%, citing a more subdued outlook for several key countries.
The agency kept Türkiye’s projection unchanged at 4.1%, along with South Africa’s at 1%.
Fitch revised its five-year potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for emerging markets on Wednesday, primarily due to a downward adjustment in China's projected growth rate from 4.6% to 4.3%.
Given China’s weight in the emerging market group, this revision significantly influenced the aggregate figure.
These downgrades reflect a combination of domestic structural challenges and external uncertainties, according to the agency, including demographic headwinds, investment slowdowns, and a shifting global trade landscape.
Forecasts for several other countries were also reduced, with Indonesia’s potential growth revised down from 4.9% to 4.7%, Mexico’s from 2% to 1.8%, and South Korea’s from 2.1% to 1.9%.
Fitch raised India’s five-year potential growth forecast from 6.2% to 6.4%, Poland’s from 3% to 3.2%, Brazil’s from 1.7% to 2%, and Russia’s from 0.8% to 1.2%.
The updated average potential growth forecast for the 10-country group is now 3.1%.
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