Global trade to hit $32 trillion: WTO

Between January and March of this year, merchandise trade grew by 1%, while services trade saw an increase of 1.5%. If this moderate growth trajectory holds, global trade could hit the $32 trillion mark by the end of 2024.

First-quarter trade data shows recovery

According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) global trade data for the first quarter, trade showed signs of recovery.

There were signs of a rebound, with a 1% rise in merchandise trade and a 1.5% increase in services trade compared to the previous quarter. Leading the charge were exports from China (up 9%), India (up 7%), and the United States (up 3%). However, the picture wasn’t entirely rosy. European exports remained stagnant, and Africa even saw a 5% decline in exports. While imports in other developed countries stayed flat, their exports managed a modest 1% growth.

Due to positive trade dynamics for the U.S. and major developing economies in Asia, merchandise trade is expected to grow by $250 billion and services trade by $100 billion in the first half of the year.

Strong growth in green energy and AI products

While global merchandise and services trade showed moderate growth in the first quarter, there was strong growth in trade related to green energy and artificial intelligence products.

The trade value of high-performance server products increased by 25% during this period, and other computer products saw an 8% rise. The trade of electric vehicles also surged by 25%.

Geopolitical tensions, shipping costs may hinder positive outlook

The WTO expects global economic growth to remain at 3% this year, with “cautious optimism” for the short-term trade outlook.

If positive trends continue, global trade could reach $32 trillion this year, but surpassing last year’s record seems unlikely.

Additionally, the positive outlook for global trade could be hampered by geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs and new emerging industrial policies that might reshape trade patterns.