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Gold bounces to new record high amid growing Fed rate cut expectations, tariff uncertainty

Exterior view of the Eccles Building, headquarters of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. (Adobe Stock Photo)
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Exterior view of the Eccles Building, headquarters of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. (Adobe Stock Photo)
September 03, 2025 09:15 AM GMT+03:00

The price of gold rose to a new record high on Wednesday, touching $3,547.09 at 2:07 a.m. GMT on Asian markets, driven by growing expectations of a September interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and mounting concerns over legal disputes surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

As of 5:45 a.m. GMT, the prices slightly slid back to $3,533.33 per ounce, extending the gains to 3.4% in a week and 34.6% since the start of the year.

Fed rate cut in focus as global safe-haven demand rises

Gold, the most preferred safe-haven asset during times of economic or political instability, had already surpassed the $3,500 level earlier in 2025, supported by uncertainty over U.S. trade policies. After stabilizing near $3,400 in recent weeks, expectations of monetary easing by the Fed have fueled renewed demand.

According to the FedWatch Tool, which tracks the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut based on market movements, the U.S. central bank is expected to resume cuts at its next meeting on Sept. 17, with a likelihood of 89.7%. Analysts expect a 25 basis-point reduction, with the possibility of two cuts before year-end. The Fed has held the benchmark rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range since December.

At the Jackson Hole symposium in mid-August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential shift, saying that with policy in restrictive territory, "the baseline outlook and shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."

However, fears over the Fed's independence have also been stoked by Trump’s decision to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook last week. Trump's persistent criticism of the Fed has added to investor unease at a time when the U.S. economy is showing signs of slower inflation and weaker job growth.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., November 2, 2017. (AFP Photo)
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, D.C., November 2, 2017. (AFP Photo)

Tariff battle moves to Supreme Court

Adding further strain, Trump announced Tuesday that his administration will seek a swift ruling from the Supreme Court to overturn a recent appellate decision that found many of his tariffs unlawful.

Since returning to office, Trump has imposed what he describes as "reciprocal" tariffs on nearly all trading partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, setting a baseline of 15% and applying higher rates on economies such as China, Canada, and Vietnam.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled in a 7-4 decision on Friday that Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency economic powers to impose broad-based duties.

The court allowed the tariffs to remain in place until mid-October, giving the administration time to appeal. Trump argued that removing tariffs would damage the U.S. economy, saying, "If you took away tariffs, we could end up being a third-world country."

Additional duties on steel, aluminum, autos, and goods remain unaffected by the ruling as they fall under separate authorities.

September 03, 2025 09:15 AM GMT+03:00
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