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U.S-based investment bank JP Morgan forecasts Türkiye’s headline consumer inflation to rise by 4.3% month-on-month in January 2026, with the seasonally adjusted core reading at 2.7%.
In a recent research note, the U.S. investment bank said the increase would be driven by food and service costs, citing higher-than-expected wage hikes, weather-related food supply disruptions, and pre-Ramadan price adjustments. Despite the monthly rise, JP Morgan expects annual inflation to ease to 29.9% in January from 30.9% in December, citing favorable base effects.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) is set to release January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, Feb. 3, along with updated expenditure weights and a revised calculation methodology.
After two consecutive months of monthly inflation coming in below 1% in November and December, the price changes in January are expected to be recorded at much higher levels due to the seasonal factors.
In a mid-January address, Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan referred to preliminary central bank data, noting that inflation is anticipated to be "noisy" in January and February, mainly due to food price shocks.
Türkiye’s food inflation eased to 28.31% year-over-year in December, standing at 2% on a monthly basis. The price shocks in August and September 2025 slowed the disinflation process, prompting a more cautious tone from policymakers and leading to smaller rate cuts in the ongoing easing cycle.
According to a January survey by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), market participants expected monthly inflation at 3.76%, bringing the annual rate to 29.9%. However, more recent surveys point to higher estimates, with state-run Anadolu Agency’s polling indicating a monthly rate of 4.21%.
Supporting JP Morgan’s outlook, the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Türkiye (TEPAV) reported the sharpest monthly increase in food prices in the past two years.
According to the data, Türkiye’s monthly food inflation surged 5.17% in January 2026, with the increase particularly pronounced in fresh vegetables. Courgettes, green beans, and eggplants registered the sharpest gains, while prices for oranges, carrots, and onions saw notable declines.
As a result, annual food inflation was recorded at 30.5%.
In comparison, the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Turk-Is) reported a lower monthly figure of 3.58% but a higher annual rate of 41.1%, highlighting differences in methodology and coverage.
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