Newsletters
JPMorgan has outlined its expectations for Türkiye's monetary policy trajectory, projecting that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will reduce its policy rate to 30.5% by the end of 2026.
The investment bank said Thursday that the TCMB's 100-basis-point interest rate cut announced this week aligned with both its own forecasts and market expectations.
Despite the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee emphasizing "significant risks to the disinflation process through inflation expectations and pricing behavior" — particularly due to recent food price developments — JPMorgan maintains its forecast for another 100-basis-point reduction at the Dec. 11 meeting.
1 min read
The bank projects Türkiye's policy rate will end 2025 at 38.5%, down from current levels. Looking further ahead, JPMorgan expects the TCMB to cut rates by 100 basis points at each Monetary Policy Committee meeting throughout 2026, bringing the rate to 30.5% by year-end.
Türkiye's inflation trajectory has shown signs of disruption in recent months. The October inflation figures, set to be released Nov. 3, are expected to reflect continued challenges to the disinflation process, according to market watchers.
The central bank's October meeting summary, scheduled for publication on Oct. 31, will provide additional insight into policymakers' assessment of price pressures. The TCMB has no scheduled meeting in November, making the December gathering the next opportunity for rate adjustments.
Türkiye has been implementing a tight monetary policy stance as part of efforts to bring down inflation, which has remained elevated despite recent improvements from peak levels.
2 min read
