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Rate cut expectations boost BIST 100, bank stocks lead the rally

Rate cut expectations boost BIST 100, bank stocks lead the rally
June 10, 2025 07:11 PM GMT+03:00

Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index closed up 1.82% at 9,659 today. The index gained momentum following May inflation figures released last week, which came in below expectations, fueling expectations of an interest rate cut. Bank stocks outperformed, with the Banking Index rising over 5%. Analysts note that the 9,700–9,771 range remains a critical resistance zone and say breaking above it could accelerate gains.

The BIST 100 made a strong start to the new week after the holiday break, closing at 9,659 with a 1.82% increase on the first trading day of the week. The Banking Index outperformed, gaining more than 5%, while Akbank shares surged over 6% in daily gains.

Expectations for rate cut

The optimism that started in the market after May’s inflation data proved lower than forecasts continued into the new week. Banks expected to benefit most from a possible rate cut were among the top stocks in terms of capital inflows.

200-day moving average breached

Analysts pointed out that the index surpassed the 200-day moving average level at around 9,610. They commented, “In the short term, 9,771 serves as resistance, while 9,495 stands as the initial support. If the index remains above the 200-day moving average, upward momentum is expected to continue.”

Weekly strategy in the market

In the weekly assessment and strategy report shared by Integral Yatirim, it was noted: “Market pricing is largely shaped by expectations of an interest rate cut. Therefore, we expect market movement to continue to be led by the banking index. The 9,700 level remains the key resistance. Until the index breaks above this level, maintaining a cautious stance is advisable. Short-term support is observed around 9,370, where the 22- and 50-day moving averages converge.”

Bond yields decline

Notably, bond yields have also fallen today. The yield on the benchmark 2-year government bond dropped 1.25 percentage points to 42.69%. Analysts suggest that the expectation of a rate cut is beginning to be reflected in bond yields, leading to increased demand for Turkish debt.

Latest market figures

As of the evening session:

  • The US dollar closed slightly down at 39.21 TRY
  • The euro finished near 44.83 TRY
  • Gold hovered around $3,325 per ounce with little change
  • Brent crude oil rose 1% to $67.75 per barrel
  • Bitcoin remained near $109,000, seeking stability
June 10, 2025 07:11 PM GMT+03:00
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