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Türkiye’s debt capital market is projected to exceed $540 billion in outstanding volume in 2026, supported by heavy refinancing needs, large upcoming maturities and broader funding diversification plans, according to a new Fitch Ratings analysis.
Fitch said anticipated interest rate cuts by both the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) and the U.S. Federal Reserve may help create more favorable external financing conditions.
Lower global and domestic rates are expected to ease issuance conditions for sovereign and private sector borrowers.
The agency reported that the total size of Türkiye’s debt capital market rose by 13.5% to more than $503 billion by the end of 2025.
Annual issuance climbed 12% over the same period, reaching nearly $140 billion.
According to the report, the Turkish sovereign, currently rated BB- with a "positive" outlook by Fitch, is expected to remain the primary source of issuance. Banks and non-financial companies may expand their presence in international markets when conditions are favorable, the report suggested.
Türkiye ranked as the fourth-largest emerging market issuer of U.S. dollar-denominated debt in 2025, when China is excluded, it noted.
Fitch also pointed to product diversification across the market, including growth in Islamic finance instruments and new digital formats.
"We’ve seen an emergence of Turkish digitally native notes and asset-backed sukuk, which are adding to the diversity,” said Bashar Al Natoor, Fitch’s Global Head of Islamic Finance.
The agency said Fitch-rated Turkish sukuk have recorded no defaults so far and that it has assigned a rating to its first Turkish corporate sukuk.
It added that Türkiye ranks as the world’s fifth-largest sukuk issuer, with volumes rising by more than 50% in 2025 to about $18.2 billion.
Despite growth, Fitch warned that the debt capital market continues to face exposure to interest rate and foreign-exchange volatility, geopolitical risk, high inflation, and tariff-related risks.
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