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Türkiye will likely continue to scale back its reliance on Russian natural gas in favor of more cost-competitive options if Russia remains an expensive option, a shift driven strictly by market conditions rather than geopolitical decisions, according to Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
Speaking at a press roundtable in Istanbul, Bayraktar said, "The reason we are buying less gas from Russia and more gas from the U.S. has a very simple answer: not politics, but price. Russia is extremely expensive."
The minister explained that prohibitive costs are accelerating Türkiye’s pivot toward a more diversified supply network.
"On the energy demand side, because gas is extremely expensive, you are basically forcing people to find alternatives—either alternative gas channels, cheaper gas, competitive gas, or alternative fuel," he noted.
He noted that under Türkiye's new National Energy 2040 plan, the country's gas demand is projected to remain at 57 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year—close to current levels. He added that without the plan, demand could reach 77 bcm annually by 2040.
However, he acknowledged a decoupling from Moscow is not on the horizon.
Bayraktar highlighted that Türkiye will continue to need Russian gas. He emphasized that as long as current market disparities exist, "you might see this trend continue every year," with cheaper gas systematically replacing more expensive imports.
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Two decades ago, Russia held a dominant grip on the Turkish market, accounting for nearly 64% of the country’s total natural gas imports in 2006.
By early 2025, that share had tumbled to roughly 37%.
Filling the void are robust pipeline flows from Azerbaijan—now accounting for roughly 22% of Turkish imports—and a meteoric surge in U.S. LNG.
Fueled by a massive infrastructure boom that increased Türkiye’s LNG regasification capacity fivefold from 32 million cubic meters per day in 2016 to 161 million today, U.S. LNG imports surged to 9.19 bcm in 2025, capturing nearly 16% of the market.
Upcoming long-term contracts with major suppliers like Cheniere Energy and ExxonMobil in 2026 and 2027 will further help Türkiye diversify its natural gas sources.
Ankara is also betting heavily on local resources to secure grid stability.
During a press roundtable with journalists on Nov. 5, Bayraktar announced that domestic natural gas production from the Sakarya field in the Black Sea is projected to reach 7.5 bcm by 2027, further insulating the country from international price shocks.
Türkiye's accelerated diversification comes at a critical juncture for regional energy markets.
The European Union is preparing to halt Russian LNG imports at the beginning of next year, followed by a complete ban on Russian pipeline gas by the end of October 2027.
Bayraktar noted that some European energy ministers floated the idea of Türkiye selling gas from its domestic reserves to Europe.
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