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Türkiye’s annual inflation expectations rose among households and market participants in October, while the real sector’s outlook eased, according to data released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The figures reflected the upside risks in inflation that began in August and ended a 15-month streak of consecutive declines in headline data in September, when it rose to 33.29%.
The report indicated that 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts increased by 1.01 percentage points to 23.26% among market participants and by 1.4 points to 54.39% among households. In contrast, expectations in the real sector—comprising businesses engaged in production—fell by 0.5 points to 36.3%.
The proportion of households expecting inflation to decline over the next year decreased by 0.85 points from the previous month, reaching 26.5%, the data showed.
Meanwhile, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported that Türkiye’s economic confidence index rose to 98.2 in October, marking its highest level in seven months. The composite index measures sentiment across key sectors, including consumers, industry, services, retail, and construction, reflecting overall economic optimism.
The index edged up 0.3% from 98 in September, driven largely by improvements in industrial and retail confidence. The real sector confidence index increased by 1.2% to 102, while retail trade confidence jumped 3.7% to 113.2.
However, confidence weakened in some areas, as the consumer confidence index slipped by 0.3% to 83.6, the services sector index declined by 0.3% to 110.7, and the construction confidence index dropped sharply by 5.3% to 83.7.
An index value above 100 indicates optimism, while a reading below that level signals pessimism among respondents.
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