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U.S. billionaire Bill Gates warned that global child deaths could climb to 4.8 million by the end of the year as shrinking international aid threatens decades of progress in reducing preventable mortality, according to new findings from the Gates Foundation.
In 2024, an estimated 4.6 million children died before the age of 5, and that figure is expected to rise to 4.8 million this year, marking the first increase in preventable child deaths this century.
Modeling conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) describes the loss as the equivalent of over 5,000 classrooms of children "gone before they ever learn to write their name or tie their shoes."
The report noted that cuts to humanitarian and development aid, particularly health-related assistance, are the primary driver of this increase, despite other contributing factors such as weak health systems and rising national debt.
Global development assistance for health has fallen sharply, dropping 26.9% below 2024 levels. In the United States, aid reductions have been particularly steep as the Trump administration dismantled its foreign aid agency and implemented major cuts.
Gates described these declines in funding as a "significant reversal in child deaths" that should be "sobering" for anyone committed to scientific and human progress.
He warned that if funding cuts persist, the consequences could be catastrophic. According to the report, if global health funding decreases by 20%, the scale of cuts some donor countries are considering, an additional 12 million children could die by 2045. If cuts reach 30%, the report forecasts 16 million additional child deaths by 2045.
In May, Gates announced that he would commit "virtually all" his remaining wealth, about 100 billion dollars, to the foundation in an effort to eradicate or drastically reduce the world's most lethal diseases and continue lowering child mortality rates.
But he emphasized that the foundation cannot achieve these goals without government support, noting that deadly infectious diseases can quickly return "from the brink of extinction."
The report warns that if funding reductions continue, "we're the generation that almost ended preventable child deaths. Almost eradicated polio. Almost wiped malaria off the map. Almost made HIV history. But we can't stop at almost."
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