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A recent study indicates that even if global greenhouse gas emissions were halted immediately, many regions of the world could remain above pre-industrial temperature levels for at least a thousand years.
The research also warns that delays in achieving net-zero emissions could commit the planet to increasingly severe heatwaves over the coming centuries.
Published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research: Climate, the study is based on advanced climate simulations conducted by the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Using supercomputer models, researchers projected the potential evolution of extreme heat events over a millennium following a cessation of global emissions.
The study compared scenarios in which net-zero targets are reached between 2030 and 2060. Findings indicate that each five-year delay in achieving net-zero significantly increases the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events.
Dr. Andrew King, a co-author from the University of Melbourne, highlighted the heightened vulnerability of equatorial regions:
“If net-zero is delayed until 2050 or later, what are currently record-breaking heatwaves could occur almost every year.”
The research also shows that long-term warming in regions such as the Southern Ocean could exacerbate heatwaves even after emissions cease. Across all millennium-scale simulations, extreme heat events did not show a notable decline; postponing the net-zero target further intensified these conditions over time.
Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, lead author from the Australian National University, stressed that the findings challenge a widespread misconception:
“It is incorrect to assume that climate conditions will rapidly improve once net-zero is achieved. Our results serve as a critical warning for the future.”
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