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The United Nations warned that global temperatures will hover at or near record highs over the next five years.
With a new warmest year on record projected by 2031, there is a 75% chance that average temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will breach the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold, according to a new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report.
The WMO outlook comes as western Europe swelters under a "heat dome" of warm air, breaking temperature records for May in Britain and France.
"Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years," the agency said.
"It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record."
"There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” warned Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
The previous El Nino cycle heavily contributed to pushing global temperatures to unprecedented thresholds, making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and driving 2024 to an all-time high at roughly 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial baselines.
A natural climate phenomenon, El Nino temporarily warms surface waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering disruptive, worldwide shifts in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. These patterns typically emerge every two to seven years and persist for nine to 12 months.
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The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius—and preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius—above pre-industrial levels.
These baselines are measured against the 1850–1900 average, a period before the widespread burning of coal, oil, and gas began releasing the carbon dioxide driving climate change.
According to the WMO report, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to hover between 1.3 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius above those historical averages.
Consequently, scientists estimate a 91% chance that global temperatures will temporarily spike past the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold for at least one year in the next five. Furthermore, there is a 75% chance that the entire five-year average will sit above that critical limit.
Despite these alarming trends, experts say there is less than a 1% chance that any single year will breach the upper 2 degrees Celsius boundary before 2030.
Experts expect the 1.5 degrees Celsius barrier to be broken with increasing frequency.
However, because the 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius limits established in the Paris Accords refer to sustained, long-term warming—typically measured over 20 years—these temporary breaches do not necessarily mean the long-term goal is out of reach.
The warning follows a historic streak of global warmth, with last year ranking as one of the three warmest years on record. During that period, the globally averaged near-surface temperature soared more than 1.43 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 baseline.
Produced by Britain's Met Office national weather service alongside the WMO Lead Center for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction, the report compiles forecasts from 13 different international institutes.
The findings highlight severe regional anomalies, particularly in the polar north. Arctic temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters are predicted to spike 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average—more than triple the expected global temperature anomaly for the same period.
Additionally, precipitation models for May to September between 2026 and 2030 forecast unusually wet conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, contrasted by severe dry anomalies over the Amazon.
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