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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighboring Uganda could expand to levels comparable to the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic unless stronger public health interventions are implemented.
The warning was issued alongside modeling results published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
The agency emphasized that the projections are intended as planning tools rather than forecasts but noted that severe outcomes remain possible under low levels of intervention.
According to the CDC’s analysis, scenarios in which only around 20 percent of cases are effectively identified, isolated, and treated could result in a greater than 65 percent probability that total infections exceed 20,000 within three months.
“That scale is possible,” said Jason Asher, director of the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, during a press briefing.
He stressed that the models are designed to support decision-making and not to generate alarm.
The CDC further stated that controlling the outbreak will likely require a response comparable in scale to the international effort deployed during the West Africa epidemic, which resulted in more than 28,000 cases and over 11,000 deaths.
CDC officials noted that the current extent of transmission remains uncertain. Satish Pillai, the CDC’s Ebola response manager, said the number of individuals infected and requiring isolation is still unclear, though current field conditions suggest that isolation capacity remains limited in several affected areas.
The outbreak, declared on May 15 in northeastern DRC, involves the rare Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus and has spread across multiple provinces, with the epicenter in Ituri province. According to health authorities, Ituri accounts for the majority of confirmed cases and deaths due to ongoing transmission in affected communities.
The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) have called for approximately $518 million in funding over the next six months to support containment efforts, including surveillance, case management, and cross-border response coordination.
As of the latest available figures, the DRC has reported more than 380 confirmed cases and dozens of deaths, while Uganda has recorded 16 confirmed cases, including fatalities and recoveries.
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