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A new phase of activity is thought to be building at Hawaii's Kilauea Volcano after experts observed volcanic glow and spattering on Friday, Nov. 21, which they say points to the likely start of the volcano's 37th eruptive episode in the coming days, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
The agency noted that model calculations suggest this next burst of activity, described as episode 37 fountains, is most likely to begin between Nov. 22 and 26, with the highest probability falling between Nov. 23 and 25.
USGS reported that a combination of continued inflation, meaning ongoing swelling in the volcanic area, together with glow and spattering, or small bursts of molten rock, from the vents, which are openings in the volcano, and sustained tremor, understood as persistent shaking, all come together to indicate that another fountaining episode is likely.
The agency stated, "Continued inflation, glow and spattering from the vents, and tremor all indicate that another fountaining episode is likely. Appearance of spattering in the north vent last night indicates that magma is standing high in the vent."
In its online statement, the agency said that inflation models, which track how the ground slowly swells as magma builds up beneath the surface, indicate that the onset of episode 37 fountains is likely to occur between Nov. 22 and Nov. 26.
Within that time frame, USGS highlighted a tighter window, saying that the probability appears highest between Nov. 23 and 25, as the recent glow, spattering, and tremor at Kilauea seem to fit with this forecast pattern.
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